MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2405-10 Reaction Awaited For Next Directional Clues

*RES 4: $1.2500 Underside broken 4 month bull channel base

*RES 3: $1.2453/61 1% vol band, 76.4% of $1.2556-$1.2155

*RES 2: $1.2446/53 Mar 7, Mar 8 highs, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2405/10 Congestion area Mar 7-Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.2398 @1555GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2345/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2314 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2291 Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2266/69 61.8% of $1.2155-$1.2446, Mar 5 low

*COMMENTARY* The combination of the upper 1% volatility band and the base of the

previously broken 4 month bull channel, proved a bridge too far last week. A

dual $1.2446 high before succumbing to downside pressure, heightened by the loss

of $1.2365 support. A low of $1.2273 seen, just ahead of the 61.8% retrace level

at $1.2266, this of recent gains from $1.2155. Meantime, with today's move above

$1.2345 focus switches to $1.2405-10 for next clues.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Moves Toward Next $1.3997-$1.4029 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1.4104 61.8% Fibo of $1.4346-$1.3712

*RES 3: $1.4070 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1.4021/29 1.618 swing $1.3930-$1.3782, 50% Fibo 

*RES 1: $1.3997/00 Feb 27 high, equality rise from $1.3782

*PRICE: $1.3981 @1610GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3905/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3875 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.3841 Mar 12 low, hourly base Mar 9

*SUP 4: $1.3817 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* $1.3928-$1.3930 resistance capped last week and subsequently bowed

to some pressure from overbought hourly conditions. This saw $1.3847-$1.3817

support give way, although the fall remained above the key $1.3763-$1.3756 area.

Meanwhile, with today's move back above the congested $1.3913-$1.3954 area, this

now sees $1.3997-$1.4000 as next resistance, ahead of the potential

$1.4021-$1.4029 target area.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Clinging To Break Above 2018 Falling Resistance Line 

*RES 4: Y107.68 Feb 27 high

*RES 3: Y107.36 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y107.28/30 76.4% of Y107.91-Y105.25, intraday high

*RES 1: Y107.00/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.55 @1615GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.25/34 Intraday low, 2018 falling res line

*SUP 2: Y106.00/05 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y105.87/89 Initial rally high Mar 7, Mar 8 low

*SUP 4: Y105.46 Mar 6 low

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the rally break above the 2018 falling resistance line,

at Y106.34 by time today. Today's move through Y107.05 has been stymied by the

next resistance area of note between Y107.20-Y107.28. Will need to surmount the

latter before confidence in a greater Y107.68-Y107.91 recovery will grow. In the

interim, Y106.34-Y106.25 provides initial support, Y106.05-Y105.87 of more

importance below and protection against Y105.46-Y105.25.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Consolidation Break Halted By 38.2% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y133.19 Equality rise from Y130.52 to Y132.02-Y129.35

*RES 3: Y133.06 Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y132.95 1.618 swing of Y132.02-Y130.52

*RES 1: Y132.44/47 Intraday high, 38.2% of Y137.51-Y129.35

*PRICE: Y132.10 @1628GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.60/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.25/30 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 12

*SUP 3: Y130.92/97 Hourly base Mar 6, Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: Y130.52 Mar 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's bullish 'outside day' resulted in a Y132.02 rise,

before meeting resistance. The subsequent lower close then saw the appearance of

a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle at Tuesday's close. Today's move back above

Y132.02 seemingly negates this but has so far been capped by the 38.2% Fibo

retrace level at Y132.47. As a result, support comes from Y131.70-Y131.25 and

should now hold above here, if the rally is to continue at this stage.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Challenges And Falters At Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high, 1.618 swing 0.8920-0.8771

*RES 3: Stg0.8981/88 Nov 28 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8968 Mar 7 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8925/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8866 @1632GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8844 Feb 27 high, now support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8815/20 Hourly congestion Feb 26-Feb 27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8810 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8771 Feb 26 low

*COMMENTARY* It seems we are not quite ready for a challenge to the top of

thecongested trading area that has prevailed for the last 6 months, let alone a

break out. The failure below Stg0.8981-Stg0.9032 last week, has seen a return

into the recent range. Near term support from Stg0.8875-Stg0.8870 has been lost

and opens the way for a deeper Stg0.8844-Stg0.8815 fall. Meanwhile,

Stg0.8925-Stg0.8940 bars the way higher again.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Sustained $0.7893 Break Needed To Add Further Impetus To Rise

*RES 4: $0.7974 61.8% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 3: $0.7962 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7924 50% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7713

*RES 1: $0.7893/98 Feb 26, intraday highs

*PRICE: $0.7876 @1634GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7820/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7795 Hourly congestion Mar 7-Mar 9

*SUP 3: $0.7772/73 Mar 7-Mar 8 lows

*SUP 4: $0.7750/55 Congestion area Mar 1-Mar 5

*COMMENTARY* Break beneath the previous $0.7759 low last week resulted in a base

at $0.7713, before picking up aided by some near term oversold conditions. This

kept us above the lower 1% volatility band and with the added emphasis of a

0.7794 break, now suggests scope for a further $0.7893 rise. Support comes

initially from above $0.7830-$0.7795, although the $0.7773-$0.7772 area

currently provides a stronger level below.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2955-$1.2961 Now The Bar To Renewed Upside Interest

*RES 4: $1.3094 6 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1.3017 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3001/02 Mar 6, Mar 5 highs

*RES 1: $1.2955/61 76.4% of $1.3002-$1.2803, Mar 8 high

*PRICE: $1.2925 @1642GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2880/90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2830 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2803/09 Mar 12 low, 50% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*SUP 4: $1.2758/63 Feb 22 high, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2615-$1.3002

*COMMENTARY* After two attempts has so far been unable to move with any

conviction above $1.3000. The subsequent pullback broke below support from the

38.2% Fibo retrace level at $1.2854 on Friday. This of the gains seen since the

Feb 26 low at $1.2615. Has so far been held around the top of the next deeper

correction area between $1.2809-$1.2763. Meanwhile, back above $1.2880-$1.2909

encourages, with $1.2955-$1.2961 now the bar to a renewal of upside interest.

GOLD TECHS: 'Doji' Candle Close After Fall Held Above 50% Fibo Level

*RES 4: $1351.6 Feb 19 high

*RES 3: $1341.1 Feb 26 high

*RES 2: $1334.1 Hourly high Mar 7

*RES 1: $1329.1 Mar 8 high

*PRICE: $1326.9 @1648GMT

*SUP 1: $1311.2 Feb 9 low

*SUP 2: $1307.1 Feb 8 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1301.4 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Found support at $1302.8 earlier in the month, just ahead of the

50% Fibo retrace level at $1301.4. This of the preceding $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.

The subsequent recovery has been aided by the appearance of a potentially

bullish 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart and also last week's move back

above $1332.1. Still have $1341.1 in the way of a better $1351.6-$1361.8 rise.

Currently seeing some correction, $1311.2-$1307.1 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]