MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Continues Fallout After Failure At 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: $1.2461/77 1% volatility band, Mar 27 high

*RES 3: $1.2442/43 Hourly lows Mar 26-27, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2410/22 Mar 28 hourly high, Mar 28 high

*RES 1: $1.2372 Mar 27 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2316 @0745GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2286/96 Mar 22 low, 76.4% of $1.2240-$1.2477

*SUP 2: $1.2231/40 76.4% Of $1.2155-$1.2477, Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.2215 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2155 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Failure to make headway through the upper 1% volatility band on

Tuesday has had some severe near term repercussions. The latest fall beneath

$1.2317 has eyes next on the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2296 and the Mar 22

low, at the slightly lower $1.2286 level. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance of

note comes from $1.2372 and then yesterday's toppish $1.2410-$1.2422 area. Below

$1.2286 and $1.2240-$1.2231, shields the lower 1% volatility band.

CABLE TECHS: Continues To Fall, $1.4022-$1.3983 Next Potential Targets

*RES 4: $1.4201 Mar 28 high

*RES 3: $1.4174 Hourly high Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.4134/40 Initial low Mar 28, hourly recovery high

*RES 1: $1.4097/08 Intraday high, base broken bull channel

*PRICE: $1.4052 @0802GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4022 Equality fall from $1.4201 to $1.4245-$1.4066

*SUP 2: $1.3979/83 50% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245, Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.3951 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3930 Mar 6 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Had faltered at the $1.4245 level in the early part of the week,

while endeavouring to make headway into the early Feb highs at $1.4279. This

ahead of the year's previous $1.4346 peak. The subsequent break below

$1.4170-$1.4120 support saw a loss of recent upside momentum. Today's move below

$1.4066 sees risk for a further $1.4022-$1.3983 fall. Resistance from

$1.4097-$1.4108, above would allow some respite, $1.4134-$1.4174 then possible.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Reaches Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y107.91/98 Feb 21 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: Y107.68 Feb 27 high

*RES 2: Y107.30 Mar 13 high

*RES 1: Y106.95/01 1% volatility band, Mar 28 high

*PRICE: Y106.57 @0815GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.30/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.90/97 Mar 27 high, hourly base Mar 28

*SUP 3: Y105.73 Initial recovery high Mar 28, now support

*SUP 4: Y105.50/55 Hourly congestion Mar 27-28

*COMMENTARY* Has popped through Y106.82 resistance to reach Y107.01 so far, just

through the upper 1% volatility band at Y106.95 today. Some near term overbought

conditions being shaken off, Y106.35-Y106.30 the initial downside protection,

the Y105.97-Y105.90 area currently of more consequence below. Loss of the latter

would spoil the look of recent upside momentum. Above Y106.95-Y107.01 and a

series of former highs ahead of 2% volatility band at Y107.98.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Possible Inverse Head And Shoulders In The Making

*RES 4: Y132.59 1.618 swing of Y131.82-Y130.58

*RES 3: Y132.44 Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 1: Y131.82/90 Mar 27 high, 1% volatility band 

*PRICE: Y131.13 @0822GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.75/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.54/58 Hourly base Mar 26, Mar 27 low

*SUP 3: Y129.88/98 1.618 swing Y130.58-Y131.71, Mar 23 high

*SUP 4: Y129.60/65 Hourly congestion area Mar 23-26

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's recovery following last Thursday's fall to Y128.95,

just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. A high of Y131.82 on Tuesday,

basically equating to a test of the upper 1% volatility band, at the time.

Became overbought in the near term, so a pullback was anticipated. A low of

Y130.58 seen so far but while unable to reclaim levels above Y131.79-Y131.82,

the risk is for a deeper Y129.98-Y129.88 fall. Main support Y129.60-Y129.65.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Is A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.8897 Mar 12 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 2: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8798/00 Mar 27 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8760 @0832GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8735 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, continued apace last week. Thursday's

sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687,

before finding some respite. In this respect, next resistance comes from

Stg0.8800-Stg0.8817 but Tuesday's 'Shooting Star' candle close is however a near

term concern. Support now ranged between Stg0.8735-Stg0.8708.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Breaks To The Downside

*RES 4: $0.7784/86 1% volatility band, Mar 22 high

*RES 3: $0.7758 Mar 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7735 Congestion area Mar 23-27

*RES 1: $0.7703 Hourly low Mar 27, intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7672 @0845GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7641 Equality fall from $0.7917 to $0.7989-$0.7713

*SUP 2: $0.7623/30 7 week bear channel base, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: $0.7602 1.618 swing of $0.76720-$0.7786

*SUP 4: $0.7553 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation has broken to the downside, also

losing support from the month's previous $0.7672 low in the process. This sees

risk revert immediately to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the

equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. In the meantime,

resistance comes from the day's $0.7703 high, needing back through here for any

respite. Below $0.7641 and scope to see $0.7630-$0.7602.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Hits $1.2933-$1.2936 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3052/53 76.4% $1.3125-$1.2815, Mar 20 low

*RES 3: $1.3007/10 61.8% $1.3125-$1.2815, hourly low Mar 21 

*RES 2: $1.2970/76 50% Fibo, hourly recovery high Mar 21

*RES 1: $1.2933/36 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2815, Mar 22 high

*PRICE: $1.2911 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2863 Mar 28 low

*SUP 2: $1.2815/22 Mar 27 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2790/03 38.2% of $1.2249-$1.3125, Mar 12 low

*SUP 4: $1.2756/58 1.618 swing $1.2830-$1.2949, Feb 22 high

*COMMENTARY* Still trying to decouple from support from the lower 1% volatility

band, at $1.2822 by time today. A low of $1.2815 so far this week, just ahead of

decent support from between $1.2803-$1.2790. Has become oversold in the near

term, so with the move above $1.2903 now looking to the more important

$1.2933-$1.2936 region, as will need back above here to reduce near term bear

bias and produce a better correction of losses from the month's $1.3125 high.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Challenges But Fails To Sustain Break Of Channel Top

*RES 4: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1356.9 Mar 27 high

*RES 2: $1347.2 Mar 28 high

*RES 1: $1339.9 Mar 27 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1324.3 @0910GMT

*SUP 1: $1323.5 Mar 28 low

*SUP 2: $1315.3 Mar 2 low

*SUP 3: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Earlier in the week made it's way slightly back above $1353.8, the

current level of the 2 month bear channel top but unable to sustain it and the

chance for a further $1361.8-$1366.2 rise. As a consequence, we have seen a

swift pullback, losing $1336.7-$1330.1 support in the process. This now leaves

$1323.5 and $1315.3 as providing the protection against any deeper setbacks

within this years range above $1302.8. Resistance $1339.9-$1347.2.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]