MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2291-$1.2315 Break Needed To Add Upside Impetus

*RES 4: $1.2372/77 Mar 27 low, 61.8% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*RES 3: $1.2345/46 Apr 2 high, 50% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*RES 2: $1.2315 Apr 4 high, 38.2% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*RES 1: $1.2291 Apr 5, 6 highs, 76.4% of $1.2315-$1.2215

*PRICE: $1.2282 @0856GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2215 Apr 6 low

*SUP 2: $1.2155/75 Mar 1 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2093/94 Sep 8 high, 1.618 swing $1.2240-$1.2477

*SUP 4: $1.2089 Jan 4 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Failed to make inroads into $1.2315-20 resistance last Wednesday.

The subsequent fall breaking below the next area of interest between the Mar 20

low at $1.2240 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.2231. Need to sustain a

break below here in order to challenge the lower 1% volatility band, at $1.2175

today and then the Mar 1 low at $1.2155. In the meantime, resistance from

$1.2291 but back above $1.2315 needed for respite.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Attempting To Sustain A Break Above $1.4097

*RES 4: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs

*RES 3: $1.4214 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.4179 76.4% Fibo of $1.4245-$1.3966

*RES 1: $1.4134/38 Initial low Mar 28, 61.8% Fibo retrace

*PRICE: $1.4110 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4050/60 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4022 Initial rally high Apr 5, now support

*SUP 3: $1.4000 Hourly base Apr 5

*SUP 4: $1.3958/66 1.618 swing of $1.4011-$1.4097, Apr 5 low

*COMMENTARY* Have seen a rally back above the previously troublesome $1.4097

level and hourly resistance at $1.4105. Now seeing the $1.4134-$1.4138 region as

the next potential stumbling block, as we continue to correct recent

$1.4245-$1.3966 losses. As a result, nearest support rises slightly to

$1.4060-$1.4050 but the lower $1.4022-$1.4000 still provides the downside with

stronger protection. Above $1.4138 and $1.4179 next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalling Below Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y108.28 Jan 26 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 2: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high

*RES 1: Y107.50/59 Apr 5 high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y107.09 @0912GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.69/77 Hourly high Apr 4, Apr 6 low

*SUP 2: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y105.66 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break of pivotal Y106.69 resistance and also the

Y107.22-Y107.30 area. A high of Y107.50 so far, just shy of the upper 1%

volatility band at Y107.59. These ahead of the next Y107.84-Y107.91 target zone.

As a result, nearest support moves up to Y106.77-Y106.69, although it would

currently take a loss of Y106.35 to impair recent upside momentum. Directly

through Y107.91 and Y108.04-Y108.11 is anticipated next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Possible Inverse Head And Shoulders Still In The Making

*RES 4: Y132.33/44 1 volatility band, Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 2: Y131.82 Mar 27 high

*RES 1: Y131.62 Apr 6 high

*PRICE: Y131.54 @0920GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.00/10 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.50 Hourly congestion Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y130.23 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y129.98 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Late last month saw a high of Y131.82, in line with the upper 1%

volatility band at the time, after the previous fall to Y128.95, held above the

key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. Became overbought in the near term, the

pullback reached Y129.98, leaving the more important Y129.88-Y129.63 levels

intact for the time being. Subsequent rise now reaching Y131.62, clearance of

that Y131.82 is needed for a run at Y132.22-Y132.44 and perhaps Y132.96 higher.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Remains A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8817/28 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8704 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8698/99 Intraday low, 76.4% Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8658 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area continued throughout last month. A sharp dip to Stg0.8668

on Mar 22 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687, before finding

some respite. In this respect, next resistance of note comes from

Stg0.8798-Stg0.8817 but the 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 remains a

near term concern. Nearest support from Stg0.8699 is under assault today.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Further Downside Risk While $0.7755-$0.7758 Caps Rallies

*RES 4: $0.7786 Mar 22 high

*RES 3: $0.7755/58 1% volatility band, Mar 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7727 Apr 4 high

*RES 1: $0.7701/10 Apr 6 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7670 @0934GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7658 Apr 5 low

*SUP 2: $0.7641 Equality fall from $0.7917 to $0.7989-$0.7713

*SUP 3: $0.7602/07 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $0.7672-$0.7786

*SUP 4: $0.7595 8 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation broke to the downside, losing support

from last month's previous $0.7672 low. This saw risk revert immediately to

between the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the equality fall target at

the slightly lower $0.7641 level. A low of $0.7643 actually posted, before

finding some respite. Will need a move back through $0.7710-$0.7727 however,

before the chance of a challenge to the tougher $0.7755-$0.7758 area.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Friday's Fall Holds Within $1.2735-$1.2713 Support 

*RES 4: $1.2901 Mar 30 high

*RES 3: $1.2860/63 Mar 29, Apr 2 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2848 Apr 4 high

*RES 1: $1.2815/20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2796 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2733/35 Apr 6 low, 1.618 swing $1.2815-$1.2944

*SUP 2: $1.2713/19 1% vol band, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.3125

*SUP 3: $1.2679/89 Equality fall from $1.2848, Feb 9 high

*SUP 4: $1.2615 Feb 26 low

*COMMENTARY* The failure to deal with $1.2848-$1.2863 resistance last week has

been followed by another fall. A low of $1.2733 on Friday, in line with the

anticipated stronger area of support from between the swing target at $1.2735

and the lower 1% volatility band at $1.2713. In the meantime, some near term

oversold conditions are being rectified but will currently require a move back

above $1.2815-$1.2820 before fresh upside belief will appear.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Back Into Lower Half Of Range, $1315.6 Key Support

*RES 4: $1348.3 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: $1344.9 Apr 2 high

*RES 2: $1341.3 Hourly high Mar 28

*RES 1: $1335.6 Apr 6 high

*PRICE: $1328.6 @0947GMT

*SUP 1: $1315.6 76.4% Fibo of $1302.8-$1356.9

*SUP 2: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 3: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 4: $1295.8 2018 bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* The rally from the Mar 30 dip to $1321.3, failed at $1348.3 last

Wednesday, as the recent range continued to dictate proceedings. The subsequent

fall below $1328.4 has seen the Mar 29 low at $1321.3 give way, sustained loss

here and a move back into the lower half of the recent range sees $1315.6 as

next support of note and protection against a further $1307.3 decline.

Resistance from $1335.6 but above $1341.3 needed to relieve immediate pressure.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]