MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Heads Toward Next $1.2415-$1.2429 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1.2552/56 2% volatility band, Feb 16 high

*RES 3: $1.2477 Mar 27 high

*RES 2: $1.2422/29 Mar 28 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $1.2415 76.4% of $1.2477-$1.2215

*PRICE: $1.2383 @1525GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2340/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2324 Hourly base Apr 10

*SUP 3: $1.2287/91 Apr 6 high, initial high Apr 9

*SUP 4: $1.2261 Apr 9 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a move through $1.2291-$1.2315, followed yesterday by a

break of the next area of resistance between $1.2337-$1.2346. Today, we have

seen a rally through Fibo resistance at $1.2377, a high of $1.2397 so far. This

could be the precursor to an assault on the stronger $1.2415-$1.2429 area.

Support moves up, $1.2350-$1.2324 initially, loss would caution and suggest

scope for some deeper correction of gains from last Friday's $1.2215 base.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Approaches 1% Volatility Band Ahead Of $1.4245 Return

*RES 4: $1.4325 Extended base of previously broken channel

*RES 3: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 2: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs

*RES 1: $1.4224/28 Intraday high, 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $1.4206 @1530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4160/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4145 Hourly pullback low Apr 10

*SUP 3: $1.4120 Apr 10 low

*SUP 4: $1.4097 Apr 5 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Today we have seen a move through the remaining 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at $1.4179, as we continue to correct recent $1.4245-$1.3966 losses. As a

result, the rally has now extended toward the next potential barrier, the upper

1% volatility band, at $1.4228 by time today. This the remaining hurdle to a

$1.4245 return. Meanwhile, support continues to rise, $1.4165-$1.4145 initially,

with Tuesday's $1.4120 level of more importance below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Stalling Below Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y108.04/11 Equality rise from Y105.66, 38.2% Fibo

*RES 3: Y107.84/91 1.618 swing Y107.01-Y105.66, Feb 21 high

*RES 2: Y107.50/70 Apr 5 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y107.10/20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y106.74 @1535GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57/62 Hourly support, Apr 9 low

*SUP 2: Y106.35 Hourly high/low Apr 3-4

*SUP 3: Y105.99 Apr 4 low

*SUP 4: Y105.66 Apr 2 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break of pivotal Y106.69 resistance and then the

Y107.22-Y107.30 area. A high of Y107.50 so far, just shy of a test to the upper

1% volatility band, at Y107.70 today. These ahead of the next Y107.84-Y107.91

target zone. As a result, nearest support moves up to Y106.62-Y106.57, although

it would currently take a loss of Y106.35 to impair recent upside momentum.

Directly through Y107.91 and Y108.04-Y108.11 is anticipated next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Challenges Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y133.23 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 3: Y132.96 1.618 swing of Y132.18-Y129.98

*RES 2: Y132.85 Equality rise from Y129.98 to Y128.95-Y131.82

*RES 1: Y132.58/62 1% volatility band, intraday high 

*PRICE: Y132.23 @1542GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.70/80 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y131.38 Hourly base Apr 9

*SUP 3: Y131.07/11 Apr 5, Apr 9 lows

*SUP 4: Y130.59/61 Mar 28, Mar 29 lows

*COMMENTARY* Have broken above the Mar 27 high at Y131.82, giving more credence

to the potential for an inverse head and shoulders pattern to have developed

over the last 6 weeks or so. Next up, now has to deal with the upper 1%

volatility band, which may be more problematic, at least in the near term.

Support rises to Y131.80-Y131.70 but Y131.38 currently provides the stronger

level. Above Y132.58-Y132.62 and Y132.85-Y132.96 becomes next attraction.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Trying To Cling To Support From Around Stg0.8699

*RES 4: Stg0.8817/30 Mar 19 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8796/98 Mar 30, Mar 27 highs 

*RES 2: Stg0.8775 Hourly congestion area Mar 30-Apr 2

*RES 1: Stg0.8740/50 Hourly resistance, Apr 5-6 highs

*PRICE: Stg0.8720 @1547GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8692/99 Apr 10 low, 76.4% Stg0.8668-Stg0.8798

*SUP 2: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8648 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The 'Shooting Star' candle close on Mar 27 is still exerting some

influence, as we continue to try to break free of Stg0.8699 support. A low of

Stg0.8692 Tuesday, a successful move lower will aim to test the resolve of

Stg0.8668 again, beneath which the lower 1% volatility band and Jun 8 low,

between Stg0.8648-Stg0.8642, protect against a deeper Stg0.8588 fall. Resistance

meanwhile from Stg0.8740-50, above will encourage but Stg0.8775 tougher higher.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Approaches $0.7777-$0.7786 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7837/52 2 month falling res line, 2% vol band

*RES 3: $0.7812 61.8% Fibo of $0.7917-$0.7643

*RES 2: $0.7786 Mar 22 high

*RES 1: $0.7777 1% volatility band

*PRICE: $0.7766 @1555GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7717/27 Hourly base Apr 10, Apr 4 high

*SUP 2: $0.7691 Hourly pullback low Apr 9

*SUP 3: $0.7670/75 Series of lows Mar 30-Apr 6

*SUP 4: $0.7641/43 Equality fall from $0.7917, Mar 29 low

*COMMENTARY* Has recovered well since last month's fall to $0.7643, just above

the equality fall target at the slightly lower $0.7641 level. Have continued the

rise today, as we now approach the upper 1% volatility band, at $0.7777 and the

Mar 22 high at $0.7786. Will need to sustain a move through the latter before

thoughts will turn to $0.7812-$0.7837. While support from between

$0.7727-$0.7717 holds, then recent upward momentum remains intact.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2595-$1.2624 Keeps Immediate Bias Lower

*RES 4: $1.2717 Hourly recovery high Apr 9

*RES 3: $1.2674 Initial low Apr 10, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2624 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2595/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2574 @1609GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2544 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2514 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2467 Feb 26 low

*SUP 4: $1.2450/56 Feb 16 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*COMMENTARY* The prospect of a head and shoulders top has grown this week,

failure at $1.2815-$1.2820 the potential catalyst. This has subsequently seen

$1.2685-$1.2615 support give way and now the $1.2593-$1.2584 area today. Below

and not much ahead of an eventual test to the lower 2% volatility band at

$1.2514 today. Resistance falls to $1.2595-$1.2624, above needed before any

respite is in sight.

GOLD TECHS: $1341.3 Break Sees Scope For Return Toward Range Top

*RES 4: $1405.4 1.618 swing of $1366.2-$1302.8

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 Jul 8 2016 high

*RES 1: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*PRICE: $1357.7 @1627GMT

*SUP 1: $1348.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1335.6 Apr 6 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1331.1 Apr 10 low

*SUP 4: $1327.0 Apr 9 low

*COMMENTARY* $1315.6 support was protected by the earlier $1319.7 level last

Friday. The subsequent rise has since moved back above pivotal $1341.3

resistance. This suggests scope to once again investigate the top of the recent

range and indeed we have subsequently seen a move toward $1366.2 today. As a

result, support moves up to $1348.5-$1331.1, loss would concern again. Above

$1366.2 and look to $1375.4-$1380.3 next.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]