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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Attempts Benign While $1.2225-$1.2247 Caps
*RES 4: $1.2329/36 Apr 19, Apr 17 lows, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.2290 Apr 23 high
*RES 2: $1.2245/47 Apr 24 high, base broken bull channel
*RES 1: $1.2215/25 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2169 @0740GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2153/55 Equality fall from $1.2415, Mar 1 low
*SUP 2: $1.2143 1.618 swing of $1.2182-$1.2245
*SUP 3: $1.2091/93 1.618 swing $1.2215-$1.2415, Sep 8 high
*SUP 4: $1.2038/41 10 week bear channel, 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's recovery retested the base of the previously broken 8
week bull channel, now at $1.2247, before once again testing lower. Still have
to deal with $1.2155-$1.2143 support, before the way becomes clear for a deeper
$1.2093-$1.2091 fall. As a result, there is now earlier resistance from
$1.2215-$1.2225, but back above $1.2247 is the key to any decent recovery and a
correction of losses, initially from the month's $1.2415 high.
CABLE TECHS: Failure To Recover Above $1.3997-$1.4007 A Near Term Concern
*RES 4: $1.4088 Apr 20 high
*RES 3: $1.4031 Apr 23 high
*RES 2: $1.3997/07 Apr 24 high, hourly resistance
*RES 1: $1.3970/75 Hourly highs Apr 25
*PRICE: $1.3922 @0847GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3890 Mar 16 low
*SUP 2: $1.3869 76.4% $1.3712-$1.4377, swing $1.3918-$1.3997
*SUP 3: $1.3814 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3782 Mar 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Failure to move higher than $1.3997 still leaves the downside
vulnerable. A loss of Tuesday's $1.3918 base then having the potential to enter
the next region of support, from between the Mar 16 low at $1.3890 and the 76.4%
Fibo retrace level at $1.3869. Any lower and will be looking to the 2%
volatility band at $1.3814 to protect the Mar 8 low at $1.3782. Need back above
that $1.3997 and then $1.4007 to spark any recovery hopes.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y109.51-Y109.61 Still The Next Region Of Resistance
*RES 4: Y110.22/27 2% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63
*RES 3: Y109.79 Feb 8 high, 
*RES 2: Y109.61 1.618 swing of Y109.20-Y108.54
*RES 1: Y109.51 1.618 projection target from Y105.66
*PRICE: Y109.32 @0751GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.75/85 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: Y108.13 Hourly base Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Having capped the rally on Tuesday, the 50% Fibo retrace level at
Y109.19 relented under challenge on Wednesday. A sustained break will allow
Y109.51-Y109.61 next, a projection target from the Apr 2 base at Y105.66 and the
swing of the recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. Meanwhile, nearest support rises
to Y108.85-Y108.75, loss will caution but eyes will likely be on the Apr 24 low
at Y108.54. Above Y109.61 and Y110.22-Y110.27 the next target range higher.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.90-Y132.56 Provides Key Near Term Support Area
*RES 4: Y134.24 61.8% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95
*RES 3: Y134.09 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y133.80 Feb 12 high
*RES 1: Y133.49 Apr 24 high
*PRICE: Y132.98 @0805GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.90/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y132.56/57 4 week support line, initial high Apr 23
*SUP 3: Y132.35/40 Hourly congestion Apr 19-23
*SUP 4: Y132.04/11 Apr 20, Apr 17 lows
*COMMENTARY* Rallies still kept back by Tuesday's Y133.49 high and while capped
here, the near term focus will remain initially on Y132.95-Y132.90 support but
more importantly the lower Y132.57-Y132.56 area. Have to remain above here to
retain recent upside momentum. A move above Y133.49 will be attracted to Y133.80
next, although the Y134.09-Y134.24 region likely provides a sterner test.
Beneath Y132.56 and Y132.35-Y132.04 come back into view.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Recovery Still Faltering Below Familiar Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8884/86 2% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8835 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 2: Stg0.8804 1% volatility band 
*RES 1: Stg0.8794/98 50% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Mar 27 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8747 @0809GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8725/28 Hourly support, Apr 25 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8706 Initial rally high Apr 19, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8689 Apr 19 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8661 Apr 17 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break below the 6 month bear channel earlier in
the month, a brief dip to Stg0.8620 was held by the lower 1% volatility band at
the time. The subsequent rise, has now broken back above Stg0.8753-Stg0.8759
resistance but this again sees the Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 region as potential
trouble and threat to extending gains back up the channel. Support moves to
Stg0.8727-Stg0.8725, with Stg0.8706 more important below.
AUSSIE TECHS: Still Has Decent Support Showing From $0.7553-$0.7528 
*RES 4: $0.7683 Apr 23 high
*RES 3: $0.7655 Apr 20 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 1: $0.7595/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7561 @0818GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7552/53 Apr 25 low, 10 week bear channel base
*SUP 2: $0.7539 Equality fall from $0.7813 to $0.7917-$0.7643
*SUP 3: $0.7528 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7502 Dec 8 low
*COMMENTARY* Approaching decent support from within the $0.7553-$0.7539 area and
just below here lies the lower 2% volatility band, at $0.7528 by time today.
Always cautious on any break below here, as never usually has any longevity.
Last happened on Feb 8-9 and was quickly reversed. That said, will need a lift
firstly back through $0.7595-$0.7605 and more importantly $0.7621 before any
upside belief will appear. Below $0.7528 and Dec 8 low next at $0.7502.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: A $1.2813 Hold Remains Important To Upside Momentum
*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 3: $1.2969 2% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2897/98 61.8% of $1.3125-$1.2528, Apr 25 high
*PRICE: $1.2850 @0836GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2830 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2813 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* The rally has extended through the potentially troublesome
$1.2846-$1.2848 region, the subsequent dip to $1.2813 on Tuesday helped to
remove some of the near term overbought conditions. Now looking to the 61.8%
Fibo retrace at $1.2897 for next resistance, $1.2941-$1.2948 of more likely
consequence higher. Support $1.2830 but below $1.2813 would caution now and
suggest the rise was losing some momentum, $1.2750 then below.
GOLD TECHS: $1317.6-$1315.5 Next Support After 8 Week Bull Channel Break 
*RES 4: $1350.6 Apr 9 high
*RES 3: $1345.8 Apr 20 high
*RES 2: $1335.8 Apr 23 high
*RES 1: $1333.0 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1323.3 @0840GMT
*SUP 1: $1317.6 76.4% Fibo of $1302.8-$1365.4
*SUP 2: $1315.5 Hourly support
*SUP 3: $1307.3 Mar 20 low
*SUP 4: $1302.8 Mar 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1333.0 today,
following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2 high
earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1326.7,
opens the way for a continued $1317.6-$1315.5 fall. The former likely keeping us
away from a move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, that
$1333.0 and then Monday's $1335.8 high provide initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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