MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Back Under Pressure, $1.2029-$1.1990 Next Region Of Support

*RES 4: $1.2182 Apr 24 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2139 Apr 30 high

*RES 2: $1.2106 Apr 30 hourly recovery high

*RES 1: $1.2085/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2030 @0917GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2029 11 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: $1.1990 1.618 projection target from $1.2415

*SUP 3: $1.1954/61 2% vol, swing $1.2155-$1.2477, Nov 27 high  

*SUP 4: $1.1937 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2055 offer some support

to the decline from the Apr 17 high at $1.2415. The subsequent bounce reached

$1.2139 but without any real conviction and once again the downside is back

under pressure. Beneath $1.2055 and look to the $1.2029-$1.1990 area for next

support and protection to $1.1961-$1.1954. Nearest resistance now

$1.2085-$1.2106 but above that $1.2139 now needed for respite.

CABLE TECHS: Fresh Fall Has $1.3659-$1.3650 As Next Support

*RES 4: $1.38365 Hourly recovery high Apr 30

*RES 3: $1.3787/93 Apr 30 hourly high, Apr 30 high 

*RES 2: $1.3748/58 Intraday hourly congestion area 

*RES 1: $1.3713/25 Apr 30 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3685 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3650/59 2% volatility band, Sep 20 high, 

*SUP 2: $1.3635 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.3613 Jan 3 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3541/43 Equality fall from $1.4000 

*COMMENTARY* Monday saw the the Mar 1 low at $1.3712 and the weekly support line

from Mar 2017 survive pressure. This was followed by a near term $1.3787

corrective bounce. Further losses have ensued today, below $1.3702 now leaving

$1.3659-$1.3650 as next support of note. Resistance now $1.3713-$1.3725 but

above $1.3748-$1.3758 is currently needed to offer any encouragement. Sustained

loss of $1.3650 has $1.3635-$1.3613 next, ahead of stronger $1.3543-$1.3541.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Trying To Clear Troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 Resistance

*RES 4: Y110.48 Feb 2 high

*RES 3: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 2: Y109.89 1% volatility band 

*RES 1: Y109.79 Feb 8 high

*PRICE: Y109.63 @0944GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.10/15 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.97 Apr 27 low

*SUP 3: Y108.79 Apr 25 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54 Apr 24 low

*COMMENTARY* Attempting clearance of Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance, which has

recently proved troublesome. This a a projection target from the Apr 2 low at

Y105.66 and the swing of the more recent Y109.20-Y108.54 pullback. These

currently preventing a higher Y109.79-Y110.27 rise. Support from Y109.10-Y108.97

keeps the near term outlook bullish but any lower would caution and put

Y108.79-Y108.54 under pressure and hint at the chance of a deeper correction.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y131.82-Y131.76 The Brake Against A Deeper Correction

*RES 4: Y133.49 Apr 24 high

*RES 3: Y133.25/26 Apr 26, Apr 25 highs

*RES 2: Y132.87/90 Initial pullback Apr 24, Apr 25 low

*RES 1: Y132.55 Apr 30 high

*PRICE: Y131.87 @0818GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.76/82 38.2% Fibo, Apr 12 low, Mar 27 high

*SUP 2: Y131.22/24 50% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y130.68 61.8% Fibo of Y128.95-Y133.49

*SUP 4: Y129.91/02 2% vol band, Apr 2 low, 76.4% Fibo 

*COMMENTARY* Last Tuesday's Y133.49 high has been the zenith of the recovery so

far, subsequent rallies failed to trouble it and the loss of Y132.56 support

spoiled the look of recent upside momentum. The next real area of interest comes

from between Y131.82-Y131.76 and will need to hold here, if a deeper correction

of gains from the Mar 22 low at Y128.95, is to be avoided. A move back above

Y132.55 would assist initially, Y132.90-Y133.26 higher.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rallies Back Into Top Half of 6 Month Bear Channel 

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 2: Stg0.8835/40 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, 1% vol band

*RES 1: Stg0.8828 Apr 30 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8787 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8750/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8735 Hourly congestion Apr 25-26

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from Stg0.8681 held the pullback last week and Friday's

recovery saw us back to challenging the previously troublesome

Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance. Monday's move higher takes us back into the

upper half of the 6 month bear channel, the Stg0.8835-40 area likely to provide

the next test to this rally. As a result, nearest support of note moves up to

Stg0.8755-Stg0.8750. The equality rise at Stg0.8851 is next above Stg0.8840.

AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Pressure Resumes, Eyeing December Low

*RES 4: $0.7655 Apr 20 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $0.7555/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7516 @0853GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7502/10 Dec 8 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7481/99 50% $0.6827-$0.8136, swing $0.7532-$0.7585

*SUP 3: $0.7460 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7425 2018 weekly bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Downside pressure resumes, now headed for a test into the

$0.7510-$0.7502 area next. The latter the outstanding low from last December.

Any lower and looking at $0.7499-$0.7481 next. A combination of the swing of the

recent $0.7532-$0.7585 recovery and a long term 50% Fibo retrace level. In the

meantime, nearest resistance falls to $0.7555-$0.7565 but currently requires a

move back above last Friday's $0.7585 high, before any correction likely.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Key Support Squeezed But Back Within Recent Range

*RES 4: $1.2984 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 3: $1.2960 1.618 swing of $1.2901-$1.2806

*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2897/01 61.8% of $1.3125-$1.2528, Apr 27 high

*PRICE: $1.2864 @0901GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2806/13 Apr 30, Apr 24 lows 

*SUP 2: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 3: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20

*SUP 4: $1.2676/86 Apr 19 high, initial rally high Apr 20

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from $1.2813 got squeezed on Monday, a low of

$1.2806 but was unable as yet to maintain the break. The subsequent recovery

takes us back within the recent well worn range beneath $1.2897-$1.2901. Need to

clear the latter, before $1.2941-$1.2960 can come into the picture. A sustained

loss of $1.2813-$1.2806 would caution now and open the way for some deeper

correction of gains from the Apr 17 low at $1.2528.

GOLD TECHS: $1307.3 Now Next Support As Decline Continues

*RES 4: $1345.8 Apr 20 high

*RES 3: $1335.8 Base of broken 9 week bull channel

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1320.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1308.3 @0908GMT

*SUP 1: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*SUP 2: $1302.8 Mar 1 low

*SUP 3: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1335.8

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall. $1307.3 now keeping us away from a

move back towards the year's $1302.2 low. In the meantime, $1320.7-$1327.2 stand

in the way of that $1334.9 level and any recovery efforts.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]