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By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Back On Wednesday's Low While $1.2010 Continues To Cap
*RES 4: $1.2139 Apr 30 high
*RES 3: $1.2096/06 Apr 26 low, Apr 30 hourly recovery high
*RES 2: $1.2055/64 Apr 27, Apr 30 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2010/32 Hourly resistance, May 2 highs
*PRICE: $1.1976 @0805GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1937/38 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556, May 2 low
*SUP 2: $1.1916 Jan 9 low
*SUP 3: $1.1890/95 Hourly support
*SUP 4: $1.1828/40 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477, 2% vol
*COMMENTARY* Downside extended again on Wednesday and with the $1.1981-$1.1954
area lost, eventual support was found from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1.1937. Subsequently correcting some oversold conditions, with $1.2010 the
initial bar to any bounce, $1.2032 higher but no real corrective impact will be
felt, until such time as resistance from between $1.2055-$1.2106 is overcome.
Below $1.1937 and $1.1916-$1.1890 is the brake to $1.1840-$1.1828.
CABLE TECHS: Pace Of Decline Slows Over The Last Two Days
*RES 4: $1.3773 May 1 high
*RES 3: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3667 May 2 high
*RES 1: $1.3610/30 Hourly resistance, May 3 high
*PRICE: $1.3572 @0815GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3538/41 May 3 low, equality fall from $1.4000
*SUP 2: $1.3509 1.618 swing of $1.3555-$1.3630
*SUP 3: $1.3490 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3458 Jan 11 low
*COMMENTARY* Lost a bit more ground on Thursday, dipping slightly below dual
support from the $1.3543-$1.3541 area. The slowed pace of the decline over the
last two days, has however allowed a move back within the lower 2% volatility
band, at $1.3490 by time today. Any lower than this and the next focus becomes
the Jan 11 low at $1.3458. Resistance $1.3610-$1.3630 but any recovery hopes
will benefit further by a move back above Wednesday's $1.3667 high.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback Has To Hold Y108.62-Y108.54 To Retain Upside
*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band
*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high
*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.35/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.07 @0825GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.93/97 May 3, Apr 27 lows
*SUP 2: Y108.54/62 Apr 24 low, 6 week rising support line
*SUP 3: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,
but the rise has been contained by the upper 1% volatility band, at Y110.06 on
Wednesday. This has risen by time today to join the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
Y110.27. Aware that the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to
look mature and a cap below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile,
support from Y109.50-Y109.18 has been lost leaving Y108.97-Y108.54 as key.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline So Far Held Above Key Y130.02-Y129.99 Support
*RES 4: Y131.89 Apr 27 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.67 May 3 high
*RES 2: Y131.43 May 3 hourly recovery high
*RES 1: Y131.14/24 Hourly resistance, May 2 low
*PRICE: Y130.55 @0830GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.40/45 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y130.27 May 3 low
*SUP 3: Y129.99/02 Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y128.95-Y133.49
*SUP 4: Y129.38 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Wednesday's fall was held just above the 50% Fibo retrace level at
Y131.22 but the subsequent recovery was then held below Y131.80-Y131.90
resistance. The following decline through Y131.22 has been deep and surpassed
the lower 1% volatility band and also the 61.8% Fibo retrace both at Y130.68. A
low of Y130.27 so far, ahead of key support between Y130.02-Y129.99. Resistance
Y131.14-Y131.24 but no respite while 131.67 caps.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8857/64 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 1: Stg0.8835/40 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 3 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8826 @0841GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took us
back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the
Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a
result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter
would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility
band at Stg0.8864 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.
AUSSIE TECHS: Back Above $0.7585 Required Before Any Correction Likely
*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $0.7561 Intraday high
*PRICE: $0.7521 @0852GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7490/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7470/73 1% volatility band, May 1 low
*SUP 3: $0.7419/25 Swing target, 2018 weekly bear channel
*SUP 4: $0.7395 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the
$0.7510-$0.7502 support area and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at
$0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a
recovery to $0.7561 but currently requires a move back above last Friday's
$0.7585 high, before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is
likely. Lose $0.7473-$0.7470 and $0.7425-$0.7419 becomes next support area.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914 Still The Bar To $1.2944-$1.2984 Gains
*RES 4: $1.3002 Mar 5 high
*RES 3: $1.2980/84 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2914 May 1 high
*PRICE: $1.2877 @0905GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2830/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under attack again on
Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from
$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914 before yielding ground again.
Initial support now $1.2835-$1.2830 but a sustained break below $1.2806-$1.2803
will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at $1.2528.
Meanwhile, $1.2914 still in way of further $1.2944-$1.2984 gains.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4
*RES 4: $1338.7 Base of broken 9 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1309.2 @0910GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low
*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1338.7
today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2
high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,
suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the
meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: firstname.lastname@example.org
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