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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Back On Wednesday's Low While $1.2010 Continues To Cap
*RES 4: $1.2139 Apr 30 high
*RES 3: $1.2096/06 Apr 26 low, Apr 30 hourly recovery high
*RES 2: $1.2055/64 Apr 27, Apr 30 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2010/32 Hourly resistance, May 2 highs
*PRICE: $1.1976 @0805GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1937/38 61.8% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556, May 2 low
*SUP 2: $1.1916 Jan 9 low
*SUP 3: $1.1890/95 Hourly support
*SUP 4: $1.1828/40 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477, 2% vol
*COMMENTARY* Downside extended again on Wednesday and with the $1.1981-$1.1954
area lost, eventual support was found from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1.1937. Subsequently correcting some oversold conditions, with $1.2010 the
initial bar to any bounce, $1.2032 higher but no real corrective impact will be
felt, until such time as resistance from between $1.2055-$1.2106 is overcome.
Below $1.1937 and $1.1916-$1.1890 is the brake to $1.1840-$1.1828.
CABLE TECHS: Pace Of Decline Slows Over The Last Two Days
*RES 4: $1.3773 May 1 high
*RES 3: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3667 May 2 high
*RES 1: $1.3610/30 Hourly resistance, May 3 high
*PRICE: $1.3572 @0815GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3538/41 May 3 low, equality fall from $1.4000
*SUP 2: $1.3509 1.618 swing of $1.3555-$1.3630
*SUP 3: $1.3490 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.3458 Jan 11 low
*COMMENTARY* Lost a bit more ground on Thursday, dipping slightly below dual
support from the $1.3543-$1.3541 area. The slowed pace of the decline over the
last two days, has however allowed a move back within the lower 2% volatility
band, at $1.3490 by time today. Any lower than this and the next focus becomes
the Jan 11 low at $1.3458. Resistance $1.3610-$1.3630 but any recovery hopes
will benefit further by a move back above Wednesday's $1.3667 high.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback Has To Hold Y108.62-Y108.54 To Retain Upside
Momentum
*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band
*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high
*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.35/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.07 @0825GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.93/97 May 3, Apr 27 lows
*SUP 2: Y108.54/62 Apr 24 low, 6 week rising support line
*SUP 3: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,
but the rise has been contained by the upper 1% volatility band, at Y110.06 on
Wednesday. This has risen by time today to join the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
Y110.27. Aware that the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to
look mature and a cap below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile,
support from Y109.50-Y109.18 has been lost leaving Y108.97-Y108.54 as key.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline So Far Held Above Key Y130.02-Y129.99 Support
*RES 4: Y131.89 Apr 27 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.67 May 3 high
*RES 2: Y131.43 May 3 hourly recovery high
*RES 1: Y131.14/24 Hourly resistance, May 2 low
*PRICE: Y130.55 @0830GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.40/45 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y130.27 May 3 low
*SUP 3: Y129.99/02 Apr 2 low, 76.4% of Y128.95-Y133.49
*SUP 4: Y129.38 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Wednesday's fall was held just above the 50% Fibo retrace level at
Y131.22 but the subsequent recovery was then held below Y131.80-Y131.90
resistance. The following decline through Y131.22 has been deep and surpassed
the lower 1% volatility band and also the 61.8% Fibo retrace both at Y130.68. A
low of Y130.27 so far, ahead of key support between Y130.02-Y129.99. Resistance
Y131.14-Y131.24 but no respite while 131.67 caps.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8857/64 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 1: Stg0.8835/40 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 3 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8826 @0841GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took us
back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the
Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a
result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter
would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility
band at Stg0.8864 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.
AUSSIE TECHS: Back Above $0.7585 Required Before Any Correction Likely
*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $0.7561 Intraday high
*PRICE: $0.7521 @0852GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7490/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7470/73 1% volatility band, May 1 low
*SUP 3: $0.7419/25 Swing target, 2018 weekly bear channel
*SUP 4: $0.7395 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the
$0.7510-$0.7502 support area and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at
$0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a
recovery to $0.7561 but currently requires a move back above last Friday's
$0.7585 high, before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is
likely. Lose $0.7473-$0.7470 and $0.7425-$0.7419 becomes next support area.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914 Still The Bar To $1.2944-$1.2984 Gains
*RES 4: $1.3002 Mar 5 high
*RES 3: $1.2980/84 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2914 May 1 high
*PRICE: $1.2877 @0905GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2830/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under attack again on
Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from
$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914 before yielding ground again.
Initial support now $1.2835-$1.2830 but a sustained break below $1.2806-$1.2803
will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at $1.2528.
Meanwhile, $1.2914 still in way of further $1.2944-$1.2984 gains.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4
*RES 4: $1338.7 Base of broken 9 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1309.2 @0910GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low
*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1338.7
today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2
high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,
suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the
meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.