MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fresh Low Finding Support From Above $1.1894 Swing Target

*RES 4: $1.2106 Hourly recovery high Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.2032 May 2 high

*RES 2: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 1: $1.1975/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1947 @1640GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1910 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.1890/94 Hourly support, 1.618 swing $1.1938-$1.2009

*SUP 3: $1.1840 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477

*COMMENTARY* Downside extended again today and has seen a break below

Wednesday's low and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1937. A low of $1.1910

posted so far, just above the next area of support from $1.1894-$1.1890.

Currently correcting some oversold hourly conditions, with $1.1975-$1.1985 as

immediate resistance, with $1.2009 and then $1.2032 of more importance higher.

Below $1.1890 and the 2% volatility band at $1.1840 is the brake to $1.1828.

CABLE TECHS: Held By 2% Volatility Band As Pace Of Decline Slows 

*RES 4: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3587 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3555/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3542 @1650GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3486/87 2% volatility band, intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3458 Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1.3386 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3351 1.618x $1.4346-$1.3712 from $1.4377

*COMMENTARY* Lost a bit more ground today, dipping slightly below dual support

from the $1.3543-$1.3541 area. The slowed pace of the decline over the last two

days, has however allowed a move back within the lower 2% volatility band, at

$1.3486 by time today. Any lower than this and the next focus becomes the Jan 11

low at $1.3458. Resistance $1.3555-$1.3587 but any recovery hopes will now only

benefit further by a move back above Thursday's $1.3630 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Pullback Has To Hold Y108.62-Y108.54 To Retain Upside

Momentum

*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band

*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high

*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.35/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.02 @1654GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.62 6 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low 

*SUP 3: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04

*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,

but the rise has been contained by the upper 1% volatility band, at Y110.06 on

Wednesday. This has risen by time today to join the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

Y110.27. Aware that the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to

look mature and a cap below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile,

support from Y109.50-Y109.18 has been lost leaving Y108.62-Y108.54 now as key.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Challenges Key Y130.02-Y129.99 Support Area

*RES 4: Y132.12 May 2high

*RES 3: Y131.67 May 3 high

*RES 2: Y131.14/24 Hourly recovery high May 3, May 2 low

*RES 1: Y130.75/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.35 @1702GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.90/99 Intraday, Apr 2 lows

*SUP 2: Y129.73 1.618 swing of Y130.27-Y131.14

*SUP 3: Y129.36 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y128.95 Mar 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Key support from between Y130.02-Y129.99 has come under assault

today but has so far been unable to sustain the break. A low of Y129.90 before

immediately recovering some ground on the back of near term oversold conditions.

Nearest resistance of note comes from between Y130.75-Y130.85, above will help

but no real momentum will be generated while below the May 2 low at Y131.24.

Clear loss of Y129.90 has Y129.73 protecting the lower 2% volatility band.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8857/64 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol

*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 1: Stg0.8835/40 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 3 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8831 @1705GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took us

back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the

Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a

result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter

would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility

band at Stg0.8864 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Back Above $0.7585 Required Before Any Correction Likely

*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $0.7561 Intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7537 @1706GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7490/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7470/73 1% volatility band, May 1 low

*SUP 3: $0.7419/25 Swing target, 2018 weekly bear channel 

*SUP 4: $0.7395 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the

$0.7510-$0.7502 support area and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at

$0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a

recovery to $0.7561 but currently requires a move back above last Friday's

$0.7585 high, before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is

likely. Lose $0.7473-$0.7470 and $0.7425-$0.7419 becomes next support area.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914-18 Now The Bar To $1.2944-$1.2984 Gains

*RES 4: $1.3002 Mar 5 high

*RES 3: $1.2980/84 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2918 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.2849 @1709GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 

*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under attack again on

Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from

$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914 before yielding ground again.

Initial support now $1.2835-$1.2830 but a sustained break below $1.2806-$1.2803

will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at $1.2528.

Meanwhile, $1.2914-$1.2918 now in way of further $1.2944-$1.2984 gains.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1338.7 Base of broken 9 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1313.2 @1711GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1338.7

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the

meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]