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Free AccessMNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fresh Low Finding Support From Above $1.1894 Swing Target
*RES 4: $1.2106 Hourly recovery high Apr 30
*RES 3: $1.2032 May 2 high
*RES 2: $1.2009 May 3 high
*RES 1: $1.1975/85 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1947 @1640GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1910 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.1890/94 Hourly support, 1.618 swing $1.1938-$1.2009
*SUP 3: $1.1840 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477
*COMMENTARY* Downside extended again today and has seen a break below
Wednesday's low and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1937. A low of $1.1910
posted so far, just above the next area of support from $1.1894-$1.1890.
Currently correcting some oversold hourly conditions, with $1.1975-$1.1985 as
immediate resistance, with $1.2009 and then $1.2032 of more importance higher.
Below $1.1890 and the 2% volatility band at $1.1840 is the brake to $1.1828.
CABLE TECHS: Held By 2% Volatility Band As Pace Of Decline Slows
*RES 4: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high
*RES 2: $1.3587 Intraday high
*RES 1: $1.3555/65 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3542 @1650GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3486/87 2% volatility band, intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3458 Jan 11 low
*SUP 3: $1.3386 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377
*SUP 4: $1.3351 1.618x $1.4346-$1.3712 from $1.4377
*COMMENTARY* Lost a bit more ground today, dipping slightly below dual support
from the $1.3543-$1.3541 area. The slowed pace of the decline over the last two
days, has however allowed a move back within the lower 2% volatility band, at
$1.3486 by time today. Any lower than this and the next focus becomes the Jan 11
low at $1.3458. Resistance $1.3555-$1.3587 but any recovery hopes will now only
benefit further by a move back above Thursday's $1.3630 high.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback Has To Hold Y108.62-Y108.54 To Retain Upside
Momentum
*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band
*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high
*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance
*RES 1: Y109.35/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.02 @1654GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.62 6 week rising support line
*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04
*SUP 4: Y107.78 Apr 13 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance on Tuesday,
but the rise has been contained by the upper 1% volatility band, at Y110.06 on
Wednesday. This has risen by time today to join the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
Y110.27. Aware that the rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to
look mature and a cap below the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile,
support from Y109.50-Y109.18 has been lost leaving Y108.62-Y108.54 now as key.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Challenges Key Y130.02-Y129.99 Support Area
*RES 4: Y132.12 May 2high
*RES 3: Y131.67 May 3 high
*RES 2: Y131.14/24 Hourly recovery high May 3, May 2 low
*RES 1: Y130.75/85 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y130.35 @1702GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.90/99 Intraday, Apr 2 lows
*SUP 2: Y129.73 1.618 swing of Y130.27-Y131.14
*SUP 3: Y129.36 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y128.95 Mar 22 low
*COMMENTARY* Key support from between Y130.02-Y129.99 has come under assault
today but has so far been unable to sustain the break. A low of Y129.90 before
immediately recovering some ground on the back of near term oversold conditions.
Nearest resistance of note comes from between Y130.75-Y130.85, above will help
but no real momentum will be generated while below the May 2 low at Y131.24.
Clear loss of Y129.90 has Y129.73 protecting the lower 2% volatility band.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8857/64 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol
*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790
*RES 1: Stg0.8835/40 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 3 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8831 @1705GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took us
back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the
Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a
result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter
would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility
band at Stg0.8864 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.
AUSSIE TECHS: Back Above $0.7585 Required Before Any Correction Likely
*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $0.7561 Intraday high
*PRICE: $0.7537 @1706GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7490/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7470/73 1% volatility band, May 1 low
*SUP 3: $0.7419/25 Swing target, 2018 weekly bear channel
*SUP 4: $0.7395 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued on Tuesday, breaking beneath the
$0.7510-$0.7502 support area and the longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at
$0.7481 is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a
recovery to $0.7561 but currently requires a move back above last Friday's
$0.7585 high, before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is
likely. Lose $0.7473-$0.7470 and $0.7425-$0.7419 becomes next support area.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914-18 Now The Bar To $1.2944-$1.2984 Gains
*RES 4: $1.3002 Mar 5 high
*RES 3: $1.2980/84 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528
*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs
*RES 1: $1.2918 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.2849 @1709GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2830/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows
*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low
*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20
*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under attack again on
Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from
$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak at $1.2914 before yielding ground again.
Initial support now $1.2835-$1.2830 but a sustained break below $1.2806-$1.2803
will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base at $1.2528.
Meanwhile, $1.2914-$1.2918 now in way of further $1.2944-$1.2984 gains.
GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4
*RES 4: $1338.7 Base of broken 9 week bull channel
*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high
*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high
*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1313.2 @1711GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low
*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1280.1 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1338.7
today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2
high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at
$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,
suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the
meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.