MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Next Band Of Support Seen Between $1.1894-$1.1868

*RES 4: $1.2106 Hourly recovery high Apr 30 

*RES 3: $1.2032 May 2 high

*RES 2: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 1: $1.1978/85 Intraday high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1933 @0735GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1894/1910 1.618 swing $1.1938-$1.2009, May 4 low

*SUP 2: $1.1868 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $1.1828 1.618x $1.2556-$1.2155 from $1.2477

*SUP 4: $1.1812 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Downside extended on Friday and has seen a break below Wednesday's

low and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.1937. A low of $1.1910 posted, just

above the next support from the swing target at $1.1894. Recently corrected some

oversold hourly conditions but $1.1975-$1.1985 has capped so far. Above and then

$1.2009 and $1.2032 of more importance higher. Below $1.1894 and $1.1868 becomes

the brake to $1.1828 and the 2% volatility band at $1.1812.

CABLE TECHS: Held By 2% Volatility Band As Pace Of Decline Slows 

*RES 4: $1.3713 Apr 30 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3630 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.3587 May 4 high

*RES 1: $1.3565 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3546 @0745GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3487 May 4 low

*SUP 2: $1.3439/58 Hourly support, 2% vol band, Jan 11 low

*SUP 3: $1.3386 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3351 1.618x $1.4346-$1.3712 from $1.4377

*COMMENTARY* Lost further ground on Friday, dipping below dual support from the

$1.3541 area. The recently slowed pace of the decline has however allowed a move

back within the lower 2% volatility band and this held the fall on Friday at

$1.3487. This has moved lower by time today and becomes part of the next band of

support between $1.3458-$1.3439. Resistance $1.3565-$1.3587 but any recovery

hopes will only benefit by a move back above Thursday's $1.3630 high.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  The Y108.75-Y108.54 Area Is Key To Retaining Upside Momentum

*RES 4: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y110.04 May 2 high

*RES 2: Y109.75/80 Initial basing area May 2, now resistance

*RES 1: Y109.35/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.18 @0752GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.65/75 May 4 low, 7 week rising support line

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Apr 24 low 

*SUP 3: Y108.21 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.97 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y110.04

*COMMENTARY* Finally cleared troublesome Y109.51-Y109.61 resistance last

Tuesday, but the rise has subsequently been contained by the upper 1% volatility

band. This has allowed some correction of recent gains and am aware that the

rally from the Mar 23 low at Y104.63 is beginning to look mature and a cap below

the Nov 27 low at Y110.84 is possible. Meanwhile, support from Y109.50-Y109.18

has been lost leaving the Y108.75-Y108.54 area as now key.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Decline Challenges Now Key Y129.90-Y129.85 Support Area

*RES 4: Y132.12 May 2high

*RES 3: Y131.67 May 3 high

*RES 2: Y131.14/24 Hourly recovery high May 3, May 2 low

*RES 1: Y130.64/75 Recovery high May 4, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y130.24 @0801GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.85/90 Hourly support, May 4 low

*SUP 2: Y129.44 1.618 swing of Y129.90-Y130.64

*SUP 3: Y129.12 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y128.95 Mar 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Key support from Y129.99 came under assault on Friday but has so

far been unable to sustain a clear break lower. A low of Y129.90 before

recovering some ground, aided by some near term oversold conditions. Nearest

resistance comes from between Y130.64-Y130.75, above will help but no real

momentum will be generated while below the May 2 low at Y131.24. Below

Y129.90-Y129.85 has Y129.44 protecting Y129.12-Y128.95.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Likely To Encounter Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 Resistance

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Mar 13 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8857/70 1.618 swing Stg0.8790-Stg0.8681, 1% vol

*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 1: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8805 @0805GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8775 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8761 May 1 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8714 Initial rally high Apr 27, now support

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Monday's move back above Stg0.8794-Stg0.8798 resistance took

us back into the upper half of the 6 month bear channel, with the

Stg0.8835-Stg0.8857 area likely to provide the next test to this rally. As a

result, nearest support moves up to Stg0.8775-Stg0.8761, back below the latter

would caution near term. Directly through Stg0.8857 and the upper 1% volatility

band at Stg0.8870 can be the next bar to a higher Stg0.8886 rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Back Above $0.7585 Required Before Any Correction Likely

*RES 4: $0.7643 Mar 29 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7621 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $0.7585 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $0.7561 May 4 high

*PRICE: $0.7517 @0830GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7490/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7462/73 1% volatility band, May 1 low

*SUP 3: $0.7419 1.618 swing target of $0.7473-$0.7561

*SUP 4: $0.7386/97 2% vol band, 2018 weekly bear channel 

*COMMENTARY* Downside interest continued last week, breaking beneath the

$0.7510-$0.7502 support area. The longer term 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7481

is the latest to come under pressure. In the meantime, have seen a recovery to

$0.7561 but currently requires a move back above last Friday's $0.7585 high,

before any correction of losses from the Apr 19 high at $0.7813 is likely. Lose

$0.7473-$0.7462 and $0.7419 then protects against a $0.7397-$0.7386 fall.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914-$1.2918 Now The Bar To $1.2944-$1.2984 Gains

*RES 4: $1.3002 Mar 5 high

*RES 3: $1.2980/84 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2528

*RES 2: $1.2941/44 Mar 29, Apr 2 highs

*RES 1: $1.2918 May 4 high

*PRICE: $1.2864 @0835GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2830/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2803/06 May 2, Apr 30 lows 

*SUP 3: $1.2750 Apr 23 low

*SUP 4: $1.2718 Hourly base Apr 20

*COMMENTARY* Key near term support from 1.2806 came under attack again last

Wednesday, this after seeing a break above the recent range highs from

$1.2897-$1.2901 on Tuesday. A peak of $1.2918 seen so far, before yielding

ground again. Initial support now $1.2835-$1.2830 but a sustained break below

$1.2806-$1.2803 will open up a correction of the gains seen from the Apr 17 base

at $1.2528. Meanwhile, $1.2944-$1.2984 the reward of any $1.2918 break.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1339.6 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1312.8 @0840GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/2.2 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, Jan 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1339.6

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at $1301.4. In the

meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]