MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Break Of $1.1898 Resistance Encouraging, $1.1965-77 Above

*RES 4: $1.2049 38.2% Fibo of $1.2414-$1.1823

*RES 3: $1.2009 May 3 high

*RES 2: $1.1965/77 76.4% of $1.2009-$1.1823, May 7 high

*RES 1: $1.1939/47 May 8, intraday highs

*PRICE: $1.1913 @1625GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1855/65 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1823 May 9 low

*SUP 3: $1.1790 76.4% Fibo of $1.1554-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1738/46 Dec 15 low, 1.618 swing $1.1823-$1.1947

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.1823 on Wednesday before encountering some oversold

hourly conditions. Initial resistance from the May 7 low at $1.1898 carries some

importance and the move back through here is encouraging. A high of $1.1947 so

far, as we make our way to the next checkpoint at $1.1965-$1.1977. Ideally

support from between $1.1865-$1.1855 stays intact now, else risk reverts lower

again, $1.1790-$1.1738 the next target area below $1.1823.

CABLE TECHS: Failure Below $1.3630 Resistance Keeps Downside Bias Intact

*RES 4: $1.3667/76 May 2 high, 23.6% Of $1.4377-$1.3460

*RES 3: $1.3618/30 Intraday, May 3 highs

*RES 2: $1.3581 Intraday hourly recovery high

*RES 1: $1.3555/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3501 @1640GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3458/60 Jan 11, intraday lows

*SUP 2: $1.3401 1.618 swing of $1.3484-$1.3618

*SUP 3: $1.3386 61.8% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3346 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* Today's rally climaxed at $1.3618, shy of the $1.3630 break needed

to overturn recent downside momentum. The subsequent fall has slipped back below

previous $1.3487-$1.3484 lows, to rest just above the Jan 11 low at $1.3458. As

a result, nearest resistance has fallen to $1.3555-$1.3581 and will require a

move back above the latter, to get upside interest going again. Lose $1.3458 and

the swing target at $1.3401 offers next protection to the downside.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  7 Week Support Line Survives A Test On Tuesday

*RES 4: Y110.84 Nov 27 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y110.51 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y110.27 61.8% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 1: Y110.04 May 2 high

*PRICE: Y109.51 @1645GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.30/35 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.16 7 week rising support line

*SUP 3: Y108.83 May 8 low

*SUP 4: Y108.54/65 Apr 24, May 4 lows

*COMMENTARY* The 7 week rising support line survived a test on Tuesday, keeping

recent upside momentum intact for the time being. Finally overnight, the Y109.80

resistance level has been broken, thereby allowing a Y110.04 return. Support

rises accordingly, Y109.35-Y109.30 initially, ahead of that support line at

Y109.16 by time today. Directly above Y110.04 and the Y110.24 Fibo retrace comes

back into the picture ahead of the pivotal Y110.84 level.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Recovery Falls Shy Of Key Y130.64-Y130.88 Resistance

*RES 4: Y131.86 61.8% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 3: Y131.36 50% Fibo of Y133.49-Y129.23

*RES 2: Y130.86/88 38.2% of Y133.49-Y129.23, May 4 high

*RES 1: Y130.64/77 Hourly recovery high May 4, intraday high

*PRICE: Y130.40 @1648GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.88/93 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y129.56 Initial rally high May 8, now support

*SUP 3: Y129.23 May 8 low

*SUP 4: Y128.85/95 2 year bull channel base, Mar 22 low 

*COMMENTARY* A low of Y129.23 on Tuesday, just below the swing target at Y129.44

and protecting against a return to the Mar 22 base at Y128.95 and the 2 year

bull channel base projection at Y128.85. Oversold in the near term as a

consequence, the subsequent rally breaking Y130.31 resistance and making a brave

attempt on the higher Y130.64-Y130.88 area. Above the the latter being key to

any lasting recovery. Support rises to Y129.88-Y129.56.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8810-Stg0.8815 Break Reopens Fresh Upside Potential

*RES 4: Stg0.8942 6 nonth bear channel top

*RES 3: Stg0.8884/86 1% vol band, 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 2: Stg0.8851 Equality rise from 0.8681 to 0.8620-0.8790

*RES 1: Stg0.8835/42 61.8% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, May 4 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8823 @1655GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8760/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8728 May 9 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8719 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8681-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8705/08 61.8% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8642, 1% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain the move back into the top half of the 6 month

bear channel. A high of Stg0.8842 last week, before succumbing to some

corrective pressure. The loss of Stg0.8761 and then Stg0.8742 on Wednesday,

leaving the Stg0.8719 area vulnerable to a test. Meanwhile, back above Stg0.8780

and then Stg0.8815 has improved the outlook again but still has

Stg0.8835-Stg0.8851 in the way of a Stg0.8884-Stg0.8886 rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Sustained $0.7531 Break Remains Key To Recovery Prospects

*RES 4: $0.7612 50% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7582 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7561/65 May 4 high, 38.2% of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7531/34 Hourly recovery high May 7, intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7524 @1704GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7473 May 9 high, May 1 low

*SUP 2: $0.7440 Hourly support

*SUP 3: $0.7412 May 9 low

*SUP 4: $0.7397 2018 weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* A low of $0.7412 on Wednesday, just beneath the swing target at

$0.7419. This the remaining protection to the 2018 weekly bear channel base at

$0.7397. In the meantime, nearest resistance from the May 1 low at $0.7473 and

the previous basing area at $0.7492-$0.7493 has been breached, leaving the key

$0.7531 level as the next barrier. It is a sustained break though here, that is

currently the key to any better recovery prospects.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2818-$1.2803 Loss Opens Up Corrective Potential

*RES 4: $1.2914/18 May 1, May 4 highs

*RES 3: $1.2885 Hourly high May 9

*RES 2: $1.2864 Hourly recovery high May 9

*RES 1: $1.2825/30 May 9 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2776 @1709GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2742 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2729 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2708 61.8% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*SUP 4: $1.2633/39 Apr 20 low, 76.4% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.2998

*COMMENTARY* Key support from between $1.2818-$1.2803 has been overcome today,

after the briefest of recoveries to $1.2864 late on Wednesday, helped to remove

near term oversold conditions. A low of $1.2742 on the day, before again some

near term oversold conditions have come to the rescue. Resistance falls

accordingly, the $1.2825-$1.2830 region, ahead of that previously mentioned

$1.2864 level. Lose $1.2742 and the $1.2729-$1.2708 area next.

GOLD TECHS: Fall Pauses Ahead Of The 50% Fibo Level At $1301.4

*RES 4: $1342.5 Base of broken 10 week bull channel

*RES 3: $1332.8 Apr 24 high

*RES 2: $1327.2 Apr 27 high

*RES 1: $1321.2 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1320.1 @1710GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.4/1.7 50% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2, May 1 low

*SUP 2: $1299.3 Nov 27 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1286.1 61.8% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1282.2 Rising Weekly support line from Dec 2016

*COMMENTARY* Last month saw a break below the 8 week bull channel, at $1342.5

today, following the failure to reclaim levels back above the year's $1366.2

high earlier in the month. Further loss of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at

$1326.7, opens the way for a continued fall and with $1307.3 also going,

suggests a test of the year's previous $1302.2 low and 50% Fibo level at

$1301.4. In the meantime, $1321.2-$1327.2 now presents initial resistance.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]