MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Under Pressure Again After $1.1830 Caps Rise On Tuesday

*RES 4: $1.1854 May 16 high

*RES 3: $1.1830 May 22 high, 6 week falling res line

*RES 2: $1.1794 Hourly recovery high May 22

*RES 1: $1.1757/69 May 27 low, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1710 @0815GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1705 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.1647 1.618 swing of $1.1717-$1.1830

*SUP 3: $1.1616 May 2016 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1592 Max 5th wave target in fall from $1.2477

*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break above $1.1822-$1.1824 on Tuesday, a high

of $1.1830 seen, coincidentally also the level of the 6 week falling resistance

line today, before once again giving up ground again. The $1.1717-$1.1709

support has since been under assault, as has the lower 1% volatility band at

$1.1705. A maintained break below here will likely reach the swing target at

$1.1647 next. Resistance meanwhile from $1.1757-$1.1769 and then $1.1794.

CABLE TECHS: Fresh Decline Tests The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3492 May 22 high

*RES 3: $1.3443 Intraday high

*RES 2: $1.3415/20 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.3391 May 21 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3363 @0842GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3346/57 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $1.3329 1.618 swing of $1.3391-$1.3492

*SUP 3: $1.3302/03 Dec 15, Dec 12 lows

*SUP 4: $1.3220/21 2% volatility band, Nov 28 low

*COMMENTARY* Failure to deal with $1.3490-$1.3500 resistance on Tuesday has had

catastrophic results. With the subsequent loss of $1.3391-$1.3386 support, we

are currently testing the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3346. Any lower and can

allow a $1.3329 overshoot, where the swing target of the $1.3391-$1.3492 rise

lies. Resistance from Tuesday's $1.3391 low and then from $1.3415-$1.3420 but

the day's $1.3443 high is a tougher prospect.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Monday's 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Comes To Fruition

*RES 4: Y111.08 Hourly recovery high May 22

*RES 3: Y110.79 May 22 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y110.61 May 18 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y110.35/40 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y109.74 @0906GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.68 76.4% Fibo of Y109.15-Y111.40

*SUP 2: Y109.15 May 11 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y108.81 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y111.40

*SUP 4: Y108.65 May 4 low

*COMMENTARY* Turns out we were right to be concerned by the appearance of the

'shooting star' candle close on the daily chart on Monday. The fall from Y111.40

has lost support from the 2 month bull channel base at Y110.08 by time today.

Next to watch is the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Y109.68, the protection against a

further Y109.15 fall, where next real questions are asked of direction. In the

interim, Y110.35-Y110.40 provides resistance against any near term bounce.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Substantial Fall After Failure Below Y131.36-Y131.38 

*RES 4: Y130.24 May 18 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.70 Initial intraday low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.53 2 year bull channel base, now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.23 May 8 low, now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.81 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.47 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y127.90 1.618 swing of Y129.23-Y131.38

*SUP 3: Y127.81 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y127.12 Equality fall from Y131.38 to Y133.49-Y129.23

*COMMENTARY* Unable to move through Y131.36-Y131.38 resistance and has

subsequently paid the price. The resultant fall has today lost support from the

2 year bull channel base at Y129.53 and also the key Y129.23-Y128.85 area. A low

of Y128.47 so far, as we head into near term oversold territory. In this regard,

look to Y129.23 for initial resistance, Y129.53-Y129.70 above. Below Y128.47 and

next targets are set between Y127.90 and Y127.12.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Still Struggling To Retain Any Sense Of Direction

*RES 4: Stg0.8842 May 4 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8835 May 10 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8814/18 76.4% of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8713, May 15 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8789/92 May 11, May 14 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8779 @0929GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/30 May 18 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 1% volatility band, Apr 26 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 toward the end of last week. Once

again keeping us from a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly

lower Stg0.8705 level. The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from

Stg0.8730-Stg0.8724 as protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, having

moved through the May 16 high at Stg0.8783, the focus returns to

Stg0.8789-Stg0.8792, where bigger questions are asked of this rise.

AUSSIE TECHS: Failure To Deal With $0.7606-$0.7612 The Problem Here

*RES 4: $0.7641 1.618 swing of $0.7567-$0.7447

*RES 3: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 1% vol, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 2: $0.7583 Intraday high

*RES 1: $0.7566 May 22 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7534 @0938GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7515/25 Congestion area May 17-21, hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7503 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $0.7485/88 76.4% of $0.7447-$0.7606, May 18 low

*SUP 4: $0.7456 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rally failed to deal with resistance from the upper 1%

volatility band, shy of the 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7612. A small 'Doji'

candle close on Tuesday the initial warning and has seen a setback into

$0.7525-$0.7515 support. This now seen as the protection against a further

$0.7503-$0.7485 fall. Resistance in the meantime has fallen to $0.7566 and then

the day's $0.7583 high.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continues To Move Within Two Week Range

*RES 4: $1.2949 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $1.2925/35 May 15 high, 76.4% of $1.2998-$1.2729

*RES 2: $1.2911 May 18 high

*RES 1: $1.2891/98 May 21 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2888 @0947GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2835 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2812 Intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.2780 Initial recovery high May 22, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2743 May 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Rallies over the last week or so have been held back by

$1.2925-$1.2935 resistance. It is through the latter that will be required

before the upside will find the basis for any renewed strength. Meanwhile,

congested $1.2891-$1.2911 resistance between still stands in the way of near

term gains. As a result, support rises to $1.2835 and then the day's $1.2812

low. Loss here would concern again.

GOLD TECHS: Break Below Key $1286.6-$1286.1 Support Remains A Concern

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1301.7 May 1 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1298.9 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1295.1 @0950GMT

*SUP 1: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1261.5 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1366.2-$1301.7

*SUP 4: $1252.8 Dec 18 low

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area on Monday which

raises concerns. This the rising support line from the December 2016 lows and

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be

sustained, then there is not much to stop an eventual $1267.2, perhaps a lower

$1261.5 fall. In the meantime, $1298.9 currently provides initial resistance,

ahead of the May 1 low at $1301.7. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]