Free Trial

Light Risk-Positive Flows Observed Thus Far

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Renewed Pressure Can See A $1.1647-$1.1634 Fall Next
*RES 4: $1.1854 May 16 high
*RES 3: $1.1830 May 22 high, 6 week falling res line
*RES 2: $1.1794 Hourly recovery high May 22
*RES 1: $1.1750/60 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1693 @1600GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1685 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.1647 1.618 swing of $1.1717-$1.1830
*SUP 3: $1.1634 1.618x $1.1838-$1.1717 from $1.1830
*SUP 4: $1.1592 Max 5th wave target in fall from $1.2477
*COMMENTARY* Unable to sustain a break above $1.1822-$1.1824 on Tuesday, a high
of $1.1830 seen, coincidentally also the level of the 6 week falling resistance
line today, before once again giving up ground again. The $1.1717-$1.1709
support has since been under assault, as has the lower 1% volatility band at
$1.1705. A maintained break below here will likely reach the swing target at
$1.1647 next, perhaps $1.1634. Resistance from $1.1750-$1.1760 and then $1.1794.
CABLE TECHS: Decline Retests The Mid December Lows
*RES 4: $1.3443 Intraday high
*RES 3: $1.3414 Initial basing area May 22, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3391 May 21 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3365 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3347 @1612GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3302/03 Dec 15, Dec 12 lows
*SUP 2: $1.3269 Aug 3 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.3218/21 2% volatility band, Nov 28 low
*SUP 4: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377
*COMMENTARY* Failure to deal with $1.3490-$1.3500 resistance on Tuesday has had
catastrophic results. With the subsequent loss of $1.3391-$1.3386 support, we
have today also lost the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3346 and the swing
target at $1.3329. This now sees the mid December lows at $1.3303-$1.3302 as
next support. Resistance from $1.3365 and then Tuesday's $1.3391 low but $1.3414
and then the day's $1.3443 high are tougher prospects.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Monday's 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Comes To Fruition
*RES 4: Y111.08 Hourly recovery high May 22
*RES 3: Y110.79 May 22 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y110.61 May 18 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y110.25/35 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y110.15 @1620GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.55 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Y109.15 May 11 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y108.81 38.2% Fibo of Y104.63-Y111.40
*SUP 4: Y108.65 May 4 low
*COMMENTARY* Turns out we were right to be concerned by the appearance of the
'shooting star' candle close on the daily chart on Monday. The fall from Y111.40
has lost support from the 2 month bull channel base at Y110.08 by time today and
also put the 76.4% Fibo retrace at Y109.68 under pressure. A low of Y109.55,
protecting against a further Y109.15 fall, where next real questions are asked
of direction. Y110.25-Y110.61 provides resistance against any near term bounce.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Substantial Fall After Failure Below Y131.36-Y131.38 
*RES 4: Y130.05 Intraday hourly recovery high
*RES 3: Y129.70 Initial intraday low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y129.53 2 year bull channel base, now resistance
*RES 1: Y129.15/23 Hourly resistance, May 8 low 
*PRICE: Y128.85 @1624GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.23 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Y127.90 1.618 swing of Y129.23-Y131.38
*SUP 3: Y127.81 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y127.12 Equality fall from Y131.38 to Y133.49-Y129.23
*COMMENTARY* Unable to move through Y131.36-Y131.38 resistance and has
subsequently paid the price. The resultant fall has today lost support from the
2 year bull channel base at Y129.53 and also the key Y129.23-Y128.85 area. A low
of Y128.23 so far, as we head into near term oversold territory. In this regard,
look to Y129.15-Y129.23 for initial resistance, Y129.53-Y129.70 above. Below
Y128.23 and next targets are set between Y127.90 and Y127.12.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Still Struggling To Retain Any Sense Of Direction
*RES 4: Stg0.8842 May 4 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8835 May 10 high
*RES 2: Stg0.8814/18 76.4% of Stg0.8842-Stg0.8713, May 15 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8795/97 May 11 low, intraday high
*PRICE: Stg0.8768 @1628GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/39 May 18, intraday lows
*SUP 2: Stg0.8713 May 17 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8705 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 1% volatility band, Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Found support from Stg0.8713 toward the end of last week. Once
again keeping us from a test to the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at the slightly
lower Stg0.8705 level. The subsequent recovery, now sees earlier support from
Stg0.8730-Stg0.8724 as protecting against a downside return. Meanwhile, having
moved through the May 16 high at Stg0.8783, the focus returns to the
Stg0.8795-Stg0.8797 area, where bigger questions are asked of this rise.
AUSSIE TECHS: Failure To Deal With $0.7606-$0.7612 The Problem Here
*RES 4: $0.7641 1.618 swing of $0.7567-$0.7447
*RES 3: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 1% vol, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412
*RES 2: $0.7583 Intraday high
*RES 1: $0.7566 May 22 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7538 @1630GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7515/23 Congestion area May 17-21, intraday low
*SUP 2: $0.7503 May 21 low
*SUP 3: $0.7485/88 76.4% of $0.7447-$0.7606, May 18 low
*SUP 4: $0.7456 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's rally failed to deal with resistance from the upper 1%
volatility band, shy of the 50% Fibo retrace level at $0.7612. A small 'Doji'
candle close on Tuesday the initial warning and has seen a setback into
$0.7525-$0.7515 support. This now seen as the protection against a further
$0.7503-$0.7485 fall. Resistance in the meantime has fallen to $0.7566 and then
the day's $0.7583 high.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continues To Meander Within Two Week Range
*RES 4: $1.2949 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.2925/35 May 15 high, 76.4% of $1.2998-$1.2729
*RES 2: $1.2911/16 May 18, intraday highs
*RES 1: $1.2890/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2880 @1635GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2835 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2812 Intraday low
*SUP 3: $1.2780 Initial recovery high May 22, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2743 May 22 low
*COMMENTARY* Rallies over the last week or so have been held back by
$1.2925-$1.2935 resistance. It is through the latter that will be required
before the upside will find the basis for any renewed strength. Meanwhile,
congested resistance between $1.2890-1.2916 still stands in the way of near term
gains. As a result, support rises to $1.2835 and then the day's $1.2812 low.
Loss here would concern again.
GOLD TECHS: Break Below Key $1286.6-$1286.1 Support Remains A Concern
*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high
*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high
*RES 2: $1301.7 May 1 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1298.9 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1292.1 @1635GMT
*SUP 1: $1282.2 May 21 low
*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 3: $1261.5 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1366.2-$1301.7
*SUP 4: $1252.8 Dec 18 low
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area on Monday which
raises concerns. This the rising support line from the December 2016 lows and
the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be
sustained, then there is not much to stop an eventual $1267.2, perhaps a lower
$1261.5 fall. In the meantime, $1298.9 currently provides initial resistance,
ahead of the May 1 low at $1301.7. 
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email:

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.