MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1515-20 Next Support As Decline Continues This Week

*RES 4: $1.1676 May 23 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1640/46 Intraday high, May 25 low

*RES 2: $1.1608 May 28 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1585/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1548 @0846GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1515/20 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1489 2% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1405 Equality fall from $1.1996 to $1.2414-$1.1823

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall today, most latterly through $1.1592-$1.1554

support. Next support comes from the $1.1520-$1.1515 area, with the lower 2%

volatility band situated at $1.1489 by time today. Resistance falls to

$1.1585-$1.1595,  yesterday's $1.1608 low becomes the next barrier above, then

the day's $1.1640 high. Loss of the 2% volatility band would caution,

$1.1448-$1.1405 then next target range below.

CABLE TECHS: Continues To Lose Ground, $1.3294 Becomes Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3342 May 28 high

*RES 3: $1.3326 Intraday high 

*RES 2: $1.3294 May 25 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3255/65 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3241 @0905GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3204/14 Intraday low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*SUP 3: $1.3132 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3108 50% Fibo of $1.1838-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* Heads lower again today, nearest support now located between

$1.3214-$1.3204. Any lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3152 then

protects the lower 2% volatility band, at $1.3132 by time today. Resistance

currently from $1.3255-$1.3265, back above would assist but Friday's $1.3294 low

provides a tougher test higher. Failure below here will see pressure return,

$1.3108 the next Fibo support of note.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Swing Target At Y108.41 Provides Near Term Support

*RES 4: Y109.83 May 25 high

*RES 3: Y109.47 Hourly recovery high May 28

*RES 2: Y109.23 May 28 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y108.95/05 Hourly resistance 

*PRICE: Y108.75 @0915GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.41 1.618 swing of Y108.95-Y109.83

*SUP 2: Y108.02 50% Fibo of Y104.63-Y111.40

*SUP 3: Y107.78/87 Apr 13 high, 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y107.39 Equality fall from Y109.83 to Y111.40-Y108.96

*COMMENTARY* The appearance of a 'shooting star' candle close on the daily chart

last Monday was the warning and precursor to the subsequent decline, which broke

beneath key Y109.15 support last Thursday. Today we have lost support from

Y108.95, leaving the swing target at Y108.41 to protect the downside from a

further Y108.02-Y107.87 fall. The equality fall at Y107.39 below. Resistance

Y108.95-Y109.05, Monday's Y109.23 low then next above.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fall Continues, Y125.05-Y124.93 Provides Next Support

*RES 4: Y127.15/28 May 25 low, hourly recovery high May 28

*RES 3: Y126.82 May 28 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y126.47 Lower 2% volatility band

*RES 1: Y125.90/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y125.19 @0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y125.05/10 4 month bear channel base, intraday low

*SUP 2: Y124.93 Equality fall from Y133.49 to Y137.51-Y128.95

*SUP 3: Y124.65 Jun 20 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y123.66 Jun 21 low

*COMMENTARY* The decline has extended again today, moving below the lower 2%

volatility band at Y126.47. The first time this band has been exceeded, on

either side, since Nov 2016. Always cautious when this happens as usually never

long lasting. Support comes from between the 4 month bear channel base

projection at Y125.05 and the equality fall target at Y124.93. resistance

Y125.90-Y125.95 and then that band at Y126.47.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Finally Some Movement Within The Bear Channel

*RES 4: Stg0.8810 May 8 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8797 May 23 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8775 Hourly highs May 22-25

*RES 1: Stg0.8745/50 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8707 @0940GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8703/05 Intraday low, 61.8% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 2: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8673 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*SUP 4: Stg0.8658/61 1% vol band, swing Stg0.8713-Stg0.8797

*COMMENTARY* At last some movement, albeit still within the well worn range.

Today's move lower through Stg0.8713 finally testing the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level at Stg0.8705. A continued move lower will see the Apr 26 low at Stg0.8681

come back into view, ahead of the next Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8673.

Meanwhile, resistance comes from Stg0.8745-Stg0.8750 and then the congested

Stg0.8775 area.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7507-$0.7503 Now The Next Region Of Support

*RES 4: $0.7606/12 May 22 high, 50% of $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7590 May 25 high

*RES 2: $0.7570 Congestion area May 23-28

*RES 1: $0.7553 Intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7517 @0951GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7503/07 May 21 low, equality fall from $0.7590

*SUP 2: $0.7485/88 76.4% of $0.7447-$0.7606, May 18 low

*SUP 3: $0.7471 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7447 May 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fail to deal with resistance from between

$0.7590-$0.7606 over the last week or so. A small 'Doji' candle close last

Tuesday has seen a setback, which now has $0.7507-$0.7503 as support. This now

the protection against a further $0.7488-$0.7485 fall. Meanwhile resistance

comes from the day's $0.7553 high but likely needs a move back above the

congested $0.7570 area to be of any purpose.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Swing Target At $1.3038 Is Next Upside Objective

*RES 4: $1.3164 1.618 swing of $1.2998-$1.2729

*RES 3: $1.3125/38 Mar 19 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3038 1.618 swing of $1.2925-$1.2743

*RES 1: $1.3020/25 1% volatility band, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3017 @0956GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2975/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.2955/60 Hourly basing area May 25

*SUP 3: $1.2916/25 May 23, May 15 highs, now support

*SUP 4: $1.2860 Congestion lows since Mid May

*COMMENTARY* The break back through $1.2925-$1.2935 resistance has given the

upside renewed impetus. Now moving slightly through the upper 1% volatility

band, a high of $1.2025 so far, as we head towards the swing target at $1.3038,

which currently looks to be the brake to a $1.3125 return. Support from between

$1.2985-$1.2955, will need to lose the latter before the recent upward momentum

loses it's shine.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Has $1308.9-$1309.3 Resistance To Consider

*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 1: $1308.9/9.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1303.0 @1002GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last week which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, the move back through $1298.9-$1301.7

allows some respite, $1308.9-$1314.9 next resistance higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]