MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Reaches Dual $1.1676 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1751/54 May 24 high, 76.4% of $1.1830-$1.1510

*RES 3: $1.1729 May 28 high

*RES 2: $1.1711 6 week falling resistance line

*RES 1: $1.1676 May 23 low, 76.4% of $1.1729-$1.1510

*PRICE: $1.1653 @1545GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1590/95 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1549 Initial recovery high May 29, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1510 May 29 low

*SUP 4: $1.1448/65 50% $1.0340-$1.2556, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Found a base on Tuesday at $1.1510 just below hourly support at the

time from $1.1515. The subsequent recovery is helping to reduce oversold

conditions, $1.1612-$1.1646 overcome today, dual resistance from $1.1676 the

current barrier to gains. As a result, support rises to $1.1595-$1.1590, with

$1.1540 then protecting $1.1510. Above $1.1676 and scope to see a further

$1.1711-$1.1754 rise.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Testing Into Key Near Term Resistance From $1.3305

*RES 4: $1.3380 Hourly congestion May 23-25

*RES 3: $1.3342 May 28 high

*RES 2: $1.3326 May 29 high 

*RES 1: $1.3305/08 May 23 low, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3295 @1550GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3230/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3204 May 29 low

*SUP 3: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.3027-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3110 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Lower again Tuesday, support now located between $1.3230 and then

that day's $1.3204 low. Below and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3152 then

protects the lower 2% volatility band, at $1.3110 by time today. Resistance

currently from around last Wednesday's $1.3305 base. Continued failure here will

see pressure return. Maintained break above $1.3305 and congested

$1.3326-$1.3380 then the constraint to further gains.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Recoveries Will Be Benign While Held Below Y109.37-Y109.47

*RES 4: Y110.14 61.8% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11

*RES 3: Y109.75/83 50% of Y111.40-Y108.11, May 25 high

*RES 2: Y109.37/47 38.2% Y111.40-Y108.11, recovery high May 28

*RES 1: Y109.11/23 Hourly recovery high May 29, May 28 low

*PRICE: Y109.03 @1555GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.35/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y108.02/11 50% Fibo Y104.63-Y111.40, May 29 low

*SUP 3: Y107.67/78 2% volatility band, Apr 13 high

*SUP 4: Y107.39 Equality fall from Y109.83 to Y111.40-Y108.96

*COMMENTARY* Still suffering from the appearance of a 'shooting star' candle

close on the daily chart last Monday, which resulted in a break beneath key

Y109.15 support last Thursday. Yesterday we lost further support from Y108.95,

resulting in a fall towards the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y108.02. Resistance

now from Y109.11-Y109.23, with Y109.47 key above. Support Y108.40-Y108.35 but

lose Y108.02 and Y107.67-Y107.39 possible.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Encroaches Into Y127.28-Y127.61 Resistance

*RES 4: Y128.53/54 May 25, May 28 highs

*RES 3: Y128.00 50% Fibo of 131.38-124.62

*RES 2: Y127.61 76.4% Fibo of Y128.54-Y124.62

*RES 1: Y127.28/32 Hourly recovery high May 28, intraday high

*PRICE: Y127.03 @1610GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.24 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y125.60 Initial intraday high, now support

*SUP 3: Y125.25 Hourly congestion May 29

*SUP 4: Y124.98 4 month bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* The decline extended Tuesday, a low of Y124.62, just beneath the

2018 bear channel base at Y124.98. This also saw the lower 2% volatility band

give way, at Y126.11 today, this the first time this band has been exceeded, on

either side, since Nov 2016. Always cautious as usually never long lasting.

Subsequent recovery has been relatively swift, reaching 127.32 so far, Y127.61

next higher. Below Y126.24 would open up some correction potential.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Finally Some Movement Within The Well Established Channel

*RES 4: Stg0.8835 1% volatility band

*RES 3: Stg0.8810 May 8 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8797 May 23 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8775/79 Hourly highs May 22-25, intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8777 @1620GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8715/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8673/81 76.4% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842, Apr 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8660/61 1% vol band, swing Stg0.8713-Stg0.8797

*COMMENTARY* Finally some movement seen yesterday, albeit still within the well

worn range. The move lower through Stg0.8713 finally testing the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at Stg0.8705 and posting a Stg0.8697 low. A continued move lower

would see the Apr 26 low at Stg0.8681 come back into view, ahead of the next

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8673. Meanwhile, the congested Stg0.8775 resistance

area is under assault but Stg0.8797-Stg0.8810 remains key.

AUSSIE TECHS: 0.7575 Clearance The Key To Any Better Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7654/60 4 month falling res, 61.8% $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7624 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $0.7590/12 May 25, May 22 highs, 50% $0.7813-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7570/75 Congestion area May 23-28

*PRICE: $0.7570 @1630GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7525/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7505 Initial intraday high, now support

*SUP 3: $0.7473/76 1% volatility band, May 29 low

*SUP 4: $0.7447 May 16 low

*COMMENTARY* Following the small 'Doji' candle close last Tuesday we have seen a

fall from a high of $0.7606, which reached $0.7476 yesterday. This slightly

below the preferred $0.7488-$0.7485 support. The subsequent bounce has been

impressive but has yet to deal effectively with resistance from $0.7575. Will

need back above the latter before near term bias can swing back in favour of the

topside. Meanwhile, $0.7525-$0.7505 protects the downside.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Today's Fall Nears $1.2826-$1.2804 Support

*RES 4: $1.2994 Initial intraday pullback low, now rest'ce

*RES 3: $1.2970 Hourly basing area May 29, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2942 Intraday hourly recovery high

*RES 1: $1.2900/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2860 @1700GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2826 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1.2804 76.4% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3047

*SUP 3: $1.2760 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.2743 May 22 low

*COMMENTARY* Tuesday's $1.3047 rally took us towards the 2 1/2 year falling

resistance line, depending how you look at it. $1.3043 on the weekly chart,

$1.3053 on a daily basis and $1.3120 monthly wise. No doubting it was overbought

near term having tested the $1.3038 swing target and the upper 1% volatility

band. The subsequent decline has been swifter than anticipated, $1.2826-$1.2804

the next area of support. $1.2900-15 the immediate bar to any better recovery.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Has $1308.9-$1309.3 Resistance To Consider

*RES 4: $1332.8 Apr 13 low, Apr 24 high

*RES 3: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 2: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 1: $1308.9/9.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1302.0 @1703GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 3: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 4: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last week which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, the move back through $1298.9-$1301.7

allows some respite, $1308.9-$1314.9 next resistance higher.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]