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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis
By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Challenges Equality Rise Target
*RES 4: $1.1925 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.1910 38.2% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.1510
*RES 2: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510
*RES 1: $1.1832/40 Equality rise from $1.1617, intraday high
*PRICE: $1.1825 @1509GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1785/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1760 Hourly basing area Jun 6
*SUP 3: $1.1745 Jun 4 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.1725 May 31 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The recovery has extended again today, moving through
$1.1802-$1.1810 resistance and then slightly above the equality rise target at
$1.1832. Some near term overbought conditions emerging around here, so look for
support from between $1.1795-$1.1760. Only below the latter will damage recent
upside momentum and call for a deeper setback. A sustained move above $1.1832
and two Fibo retraces between $1.1881-$1.1910 become the next attraction.
CABLE TECHS: Rally Resisted By Upper 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.3570 May 17 high
*RES 3: $1.3520 76.4% Fibo of $1.3618-$1.3204
*RES 2: $1.3481/87 23.6% Fibo of $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low
*RES 1: $1.3450/73 Hourly resistance, 1% volatility band
*PRICE: $1.3429 @1520GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3362/71 Jun 1 high, intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3333/48 Initial rally high Jun 5, May 31 high
*SUP 3: $1.3295 Jun 1 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.3254 Jun 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Rally has moved through $1.3440-$1.3465 resistance today, coming to
rest at the upper 1% volatility band and just below the next levels of note
between $1.3481-$1.3487. Some near term overbought conditions are in need of
some correction but the subsequent move back below $1.3397 raises some concerns.
A low of $1.3371 seen before bouncing again but a failure to then deal with
$1.3450 will caution further. Above $1.3487 and $1.3520 is next target.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Reaches Toward Next Y110.34-Y110.62 Target Zone
*RES 4: Y111.08 May 18 high
*RES 3: Y110.62 76.4% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11
*RES 2: Y110.47 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Y110.27/34 Jun 6 high, 1.618 swing of Y110.01-Y109.47
*PRICE: Y109.99 @1523GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.65/75 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y109.37/47 Jun 4, Jun 5 lows
*SUP 3: Y109.08 May 30 high, now support
*SUP 4: Y108.55 Hourly basing area May 30-31
*COMMENTARY* The recovery has now stretched above Y109.75-Y109.83 resistance,
moving slightly through the next Fibo retrace of note, the 61.8% at Y110.14 and
towards next Y110.34-Y110.62 targets. Close to overbought again in the near
term, so eyes are on Y109.75-Y109.37 support. A loss of the latter would
caution, putting pressure back on the May 30 high at Y109.08. Upside momentum
would take a hit on a move below here, Y108.55-Y108.39 then next support lower.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y130.25-Y130.53 Can Provide The Next Upside Target Zone
*RES 4: Y131.38 May 14 high
*RES 3: Y131.06 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62
*RES 2: Y130.53 2% volatility band
*RES 1: Y130.25/28 Hourly resistance, intraday high
*PRICE: Y130.07 @1527GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.42/50 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y128.96 Initial high Jun 6, now support
*SUP 3: Y128.70 Jun 4 high, now support
*SUP 4: Y128.30/35 Hourly congestion area Jun 4-Jun 5
*COMMENTARY* The recovery has been relentless, following last week's exhaustion
spike to the base of the 4 month bear channel. Now the rally moves through the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y129.78, some minor Y130.25 resistance in the way of
a look at the upper 2% volatility band at Y130.53 and perhaps Y131.06.
Meanwhile, Y129.50-Y129.42 provides support, loss of the latter would dent
recent upside momentum and suggest some deeper correction is due.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Upside Flatters To Deceive With Move Through Stg0.8810
*RES 4: Stg0.8931 7 month bear channel top
*RES 3: Stg0.8886 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 2: Stg0.8846 1% volatility band
*RES 1: Stg0.8838/42 Intraday, May 4 highs
*PRICE: Stg0.8800 @1545GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8780/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8750 Initial rally high Jun 5, now support
*SUP 3: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 lows
*SUP 4: Stg0.8697 May 29 low
*COMMENTARY* Found the ability to move through Stg0.8795-Stg0.8810 resistance
today but has once again faltered on the approach to the next resistance of note
between Stg0.8842-Stg0.8846. The subsequent pullback from there has been
relatively swift, with Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780 providing immediate support against a
return into the more familiar range above the recent Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 lows.
AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Struggling To Maintain A Break Above $0.7666
*RES 4: $0.7739 2% volatility band
*RES 3: $0.7718 76.4% Fibo of $0.7813-$0.7412
*RES 2: $0.7689 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412
*RES 1: $0.7677 Jun 6 high
*PRICE: $0.7632 @1550GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7615/21 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7594/95 May 31 high, Jun 5 low
*SUP 3: $0.7570 Hourly congestion area May 30-31
*SUP 4: $0.7553 May 31 low
*COMMENTARY* Has broken above the 2018 falling resistance at $0.7621-$0.7618,
depending on whether you look at the daily or weekly chart. But so far finding
it a struggle to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band and the
base of the previously broken 30 month support line at $0.7666. Maintained
clearance here will encourage, $0.7689-$0.7718 next. Support currently from
$0.7621-$0.7615 but more importantly from $0.7595-$0.7594.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting Recent $1.3067-$1.2858 Drop
*RES 4: $1.3090 1% volatility band
*RES 3: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high
*RES 2: $1.3018 76.4% Fibo of $1.3067-$1.2858
*RES 1: $1.2987/91 61.8% Fibo of $1.3067-$1.2858, i'day high
*PRICE: $1.2988 @1555GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2935/40 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2900 Jun 4 low
*SUP 3: $1.2858/61 Jun 6 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067
*SUP 4: $1.2809/18 76.4% of $1.2729-$1.3067, May 31 low
*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 on Tuesday, basically a test to the 2 1/2 year
resistance line. Subsequently fell foul of some overbought conditions and have
seen a decent pullback, which found support from $1.2858 on Wednesday, just
below the 38.2% Fibo support at $1.2861. The following rally corrects that drop,
having now overcome the 50% retrace level at $1.2963, then $1.2987-$1.3018
becomes possible. Support $1.2935-$1.2900.
GOLD TECHS: $1303.5-$1307.9 Now Providing Near Term Resistance
*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high
*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high
*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high
*RES 1: $1303.5 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1298.2 @1558GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low
*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low
*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which
raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the
December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's
$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop
an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, still having trouble with
$1303.5-$1307.9 resistance, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.