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Still Looking For Weakness

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close A Near Term Concern Here
*RES 4: $1.1910 38.2% Fibo of $1.2556-$1.1510
*RES 3: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510
*RES 2: $1.1832/40 Equality rise from $1.1617, Jun 7 high
*RES 1: $1.1810/20 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1767 @0840GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1745/60 Jun 4 high, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1725 May 31 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.1695 Hourly congestion Jun 4-Jun 5
*SUP 4: $1.1653 Jun 5 low
*COMMENTARY* The recovery extended Thursday, above 1.1810 resistance and then
slightly through the equality rise target at $1.1832. The 'Shooting Star' daily
candle close also a concern here. Currently testing the base of initial support
from between $1.1795-$1.1760. Below here will spoil recent upward momentum and
call for a deeper $1.1745-$1.1695 setback. Resistance $1.1810-20 with back above
$1.1832 seeing two Fibo retraces between $1.1881-$1.1910 as next attraction.
     
CABLE TECHS: Upper 1% Volatility Band Caps, 'Doji' Candle At Close
*RES 4: $1.3570 May 17 high
*RES 3: $1.3520 76.4% Fibo of $1.3618-$1.3204
*RES 2: $1.3481/87 23.6% $1.4377-$1.3204 ,1% vol, May 4 low
*RES 1: $1.3455/73 Hourly resistance, Jun 7 high
*PRICE: $1.3410 @0850GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3390 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3362/71 Jun 1 high, Jun 7 low
*SUP 3: $1.3333/48 Initial rally high Jun 5, May 31 high
*SUP 4: $1.3295 Jun 1 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Rally was capped by the upper 1% volatility band on Thursday, which
has moved slightly higher today to join the next levels of note between
$1.3481-$1.3487. Some near term overbought conditions are in need of some
correction and a move back below $1.3390 again would raise concerns, as does the
appearance of a 'Doji' candle at yesterday's close. Ideally need above $1.3481
to allay these fears and see a continued $1.3520-$1.3570 rise.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Takes A Breather Ahead Of Y110.34-Y110.62 Target Zone
*RES 4: Y111.08 May 18 high
*RES 3: Y110.62 76.4% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11
*RES 2: Y110.27/34 Jun 6 high, 1.618 swing of Y110.01-Y109.47
*RES 1: Y109.95/05 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y109.35 @0903GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.95/08 Congestion May 30-31, May 30 high
*SUP 3: Y108.55 Hourly basing area May 30-31
*SUP 4: Y108.30 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* On Thursday the rally moved slightly through the 61.8% Fibo retrace
at Y110.14 and towards next Y110.34-Y110.62 targets. Close to overbought again
in the near term, the subsequent pullback below Y109.37 support cautions. A loss
here, putting pressure back on Y109.20 and the May 30 high at Y109.08. Upside
momentum would take a hit on a move below here. Meanwhile, Y109.95-Y110.05
currently stands in the way of any recovery.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Correction Underway, Y128.30-Y128.12 Protect Y127.79 Return
*RES 4: Y130.28 Jun 7 high
*RES 3: Y129.73/80 Intraday high, Initial pullback Jun 7
*RES 2: Y129.28 Jun 7 low, now resistance
*RES 1: Y129.00/15 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y128.62 @0914GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.30/35 Hourly congestion area Jun 4-Jun 5
*SUP 2: Y128.12 38.2% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.28
*SUP 3: Y127.79 Jun 5 low
*SUP 4: Y127.45 50% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.28
*COMMENTARY* The recovery had been relentless, following last week's exhaustion
spike to the base of the 4 month bear channel. Thursday saw a move through the
76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y129.78, then Y130.28 resistance preventing a look
at the upper 2% volatility band at Y130.51. Meanwhile, near term overbought
conditions have seen a pullback below Y129.50-Y129.42 support, this dents recent
upside momentum and suggests some deeper correction is due.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Upside Flatters To Deceive With Move Through Stg0.8810
*RES 4: Stg0.8886 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620
*RES 3: Stg0.8838/47 Jun 7, May 4 highs, 1% vol band
*RES 2: Stg0.8820 Initial pullback low Jun 7, now res'tce
*RES 1: Stg0.8800 Intraday high
*PRICE: Stg0.8770 @0943GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8750 Initial rally high Jun 5, now support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 lows
*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681 Apr 26 low
*COMMENTARY* Found the ability to move through Stg0.8795-Stg0.8810 resistance
Thursday but has once again faltered on the approach to the next resistance of
note between Stg0.8842-Stg0.8847. The subsequent pullback from there has been
relatively swift, with Stg0.8790-Stg0.8780 giving way and allowing a return into
the more familiar range above the recent Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 lows.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Swift After Failing To Sustain Break Above $0.7666
*RES 4: $0.7677 Jun 7 high
*RES 3: $0.7650 Hourly congestion Jun 6-Jun 7
*RES 2: $0.7629 Hourly recovery high Jun 7
*RES 1: $0.7613 Jun 7 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7569 @0952GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7565/70 Hourly congestion area May 30-31
*SUP 2: $0.7553 May 31 low
*SUP 3: $0.7523 76.4% Fibo of $0.7476-$0.7677
*SUP 4: $0.7510/14 1% volatility band, Jun 1 low
*COMMENTARY* Unable to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band
and the base of the previously broken 30 month support line at $0.7666. Squeezed
a high of $0.7677 on Thursday but the resultant fall has been swift moving back
below $0.7615-$0.7594 support. Now looking to $0.7565-$0.7553 for next
directional clues, lower and the correction can extend to $0.7523-$0.7514 next.
Nearest resistance $0.7613-$0.7629.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Rally Challenging 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1.3125 Mar 19 high
*RES 3: $1.3093 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high
*RES 1: $1.3018/26 76.4% of $1.3067-$1.2858, intraday high
*PRICE: $1.3016 @1000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2985 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2963 Jun 6 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2936 Jun 7 low
*SUP 4: $1.2858/61 Jun 6 low, 38.2% Fibo of $1.2528-$1.3067
*COMMENTARY* Reached $1.3067 on Tuesday, basically a test to the 2 1/2 year
resistance line. Subsequently fell foul of some overbought conditions and have
seen a decent pullback, which found support from $1.2858 on Wednesday, just
below the 38.2% Fibo support at $1.2861. The following rally corrects that drop,
the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3018 currently under assault. Meanwhile, support
rises to $1.2985-$1.2963 but only back beneath $1.2936 will caution.
     
GOLD TECHS: $1303.5-$1307.9 Now Providing Near Term Resistance
*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high
*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high
*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high
*RES 1: $1303.5 Jun 7 high
*PRICE: $1299.0 @1002GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low
*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low
*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9
*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which
raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the
December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's
$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop
an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, still having trouble with
$1303.5-$1307.9 resistance, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]