MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Current Consolidation Looks Like A 4th Wave Recovery

*RES 4: $1.1725 Jun 13 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1698 50% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1543

*RES 2: $1.1652/61 Hourly high Jun 14, 38.2% $1.1852-$1.1543

*RES 1: $1.1627 Jun 15 high

*PRICE: $1.1610 @1515GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1543/63 Jun 15 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1510 May 29 low

*SUP 3: $1.1480/90 2% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.1543-$1.1627

*SUP 4: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*COMMENTARY* A combination of the Jun 7 bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and

last week the upper 1% volatility band, conspired to send us down and back

towards the year's previous $1.1510 low. The current consolidation looks like a

4th wave, ahead of another push lower, which on a loss of $1.1510 would target

$1.1490-$1.1448 next. Meanwhile, $1.1627 currently keeps rallies in check, above

would allow some higher correction of losses from $1.1840-$1.1852.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3301-$1.3307 Keeps The Focus On Another Push Lower

*RES 4: $1.3392 Hourly high Jun 14, 76.4% $1.3447-$1.3211

*RES 3: $1.3350/57 Hourly high Jun 14, 61.8% $1.3447-$1.3211

*RES 2: $1.3329 50% Fibo of $1.3447-$1.3211

*RES 1: $1.3301/07 38.2% of $1.3447-$1.3211, Jun 13 low

*PRICE: $1.3241 @1520GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3222 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.3204/11 May 29, Jun 15 lows

*SUP 3: $1.3152 76.4% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.4377

*SUP 4: $1.3107 50% Fibo of $1.1838-$1.4377

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday's early recovery to $1.3447 was unable to remove the

threat of the Jun 7 'Doji' bearish candle close. As a result, we have seen a

sharp fall, back through Wednesday's $1.3307 base and all the way toward the May

29 low at $1.3204. Oversold in the near term but will currently require a move

back above $1.3301-$1.3307 to elicit any better comeback. Otherwise a further

fall towards $1.3152-$1.3107 beckons next.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters On Approach To The Y110.93 Swing Target

*RES 4: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high

*RES 2: Y111.30 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y110.91/93 Jun 15 high, 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20

*PRICE: Y110.47 @1525GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.15/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.85/92 61.8% of Y109.20-Y110.91, Jun 14 low

*SUP 3: Y109.60 Hourly high Jun 8, 76.4% of Y109.20-Y110.91

*SUP 4: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a rise to Y110.91, just shy of the swing target at

Y110.93, before suffering a setback. With Y110.25-Y110.15 now acting as near

term support against a return to Y109.92-Y109.85 where bigger questions would be

asked of direction. Directly through Y110.93 and the upper 1% volatility band at

Y111.30 is the potential brake to a higher Y111.36-Y111.60 rise.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Steep Fall So Far Held Around The Lower 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y129.82 Former hourly basing area Jun 13-14

*RES 3: Y129.51/52 Jun 12, Jun 13 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: Y129.03 Hourly base Jun 14, now resistance

*RES 1: Y128.50/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.25 @1527GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.70/80 Jun 15 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y127.49 50% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35

*SUP 3: Y127.21 1.618 swing of Y127.70-Y128.50

*SUP 4: Y126.81 61.8% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35

*COMMENTARY* Thursday's recovery back through Y129.75 challenged the month's

previous Y130.28 high. A peak at Y130.35 posted but was unable to maintain a

clear break higher. The subsequent loss of Y129.51-Y129.43 triggered correction

potential and the former Y128.17-Y128.11 lows have since been lost. A base so

far of Y127.70, just beneath the lower 1% volatility band. This protects a

further Y127.49-Y126.81 fall. Resistance from Y128.50-Y128.70 to give clues.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Making It's Way Back Up A Well Worn Path

*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs

*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs

*RES 2: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly highs/lows Jun 12-13

*RES 1: Stg0.8779 Intraday high

*PRICE: Stg0.8762 @1530GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8717/21 Jun 15, Jun 5 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8681/82 Apr 26 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Stg0.8672 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842

*COMMENTARY* Last week once again faltered on the approach to the resistance of

note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent

pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support

giving way on Thursday and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent

Stg0.8721-24 lows. Near term Stg0.8779-Stg0.8800 now provides resistance to any

recovery, Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8717.

AUSSIE TECHS: Fall Nears $0.7412-$0.7390 Support

*RES 4: $0.7590 Congestion area Jun 8-12

*RES 3: $0.7556/61 Jun 13, Jun 8 lows, now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7529 Hourly low Jun 14, now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7480/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7424 @1531GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7424 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7409/12 2% volatility band, May 9 low

*SUP 3: $0.7390 76.4% Fibo of $0.7160-$0.8136

*SUP 4: $0.7373 Jun 1 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Was unable to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility

band and the base of the previously broken 30 month support line. Squeezed a

high of $0.7677 but the resultant fall moved back below $0.7615-$0.7594 and has

subsequently lost support from the lower 1% band, at $0.7505 today. A low of

$0.7426 so far, this protecting the May 9 low at $0.7412 and the 76.4% Fibo at

$0.7390. Back above $0.7480-85 would allow some near term respite.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continued Rise Nears 9 Month Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.3377 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061

*RES 3: $1.3292 2% volatilty band 

*RES 2: $1.3259 9 month bull channel projection

*RES 1: $1.3210/15 Jun 15, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3212 @1532GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3140/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3110/20 Hourly low/ high Jun 14-15

*SUP 3: $1.3052 Jun 13 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.3028 Jun 11 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* After holding important near term support from above

$1.2950-$1.2921, last Thursday saw a sharp recovery. In turn, this has

surpassed, $1.3105 and then the former $1.3125 high. Friday breaking slightly

through the next target zone between $1.3189-$1.3199. A high of $1.3210 so far,

as we near the 9 month bull channel top projection at $1.3259. In the meantime,

any setbacks should be held between $1.3150-$1.3110, else caution is advised.

GOLD TECHS: Fresh Fall Underway After $1309.3 Blocks Gains

*RES 4: $1309.3 61.8% Fibo of $1326.0-$1282.2, Jun 14 high

*RES 3: $1305.9 Hourly high Jun 13

*RES 2: $1297.3 Initial low Jun 15, now resistance

*RES 1: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1278.9 @1531GMT

*SUP 1: $1273.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 3: $1265.4 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1309.3

*SUP 4: $1262.3 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1365.4-$1301.7

*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month

which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and there is not much to stop an eventual

$1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In the meantime, $1309.3 resistance has blocked gains and

started a fresh fall below $1282.2 support. Look to $1273.5 for interim support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]