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(Z1) Shallow Bounce

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Still Looking For Weakness

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Still Looks Like A 4th Wave Recovery
*RES 4: $1.1688 Hourly high Jun 14
*RES 3: $1.1645 Intraday high
*RES 2: $1.1620 Initial intraday pullback low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1595/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.1578 @1532GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1510 May 29
*SUP 2: $1.1480 1.618 swing $1.1543-$1.1645
*SUP 3: $1.1465 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556
*COMMENTARY* A combination of the Jun 7 bearish 'Shooting Star' candle close and
last week the upper 1% volatility band, have conspired to send us down and
backtowards the year's previous $1.1510 low. The current consolidation looks
like a 4th wave, ahead of another push lower, which on a loss of $1.1510 would
target $1.1480-$1.1448 next. Meanwhile, $1.1595-$1.1620 provides resistance,
above $1.1645 would allow a higher correction of losses from $1.1840-$1.1852.
     
CABLE TECHS: $1.3157-$1.3152 Next Targets After Seeing Fresh Lows
*RES 4: $1.3299/07 Jun 13 low, Jun 15 high
*RES 3: $1.3273 Intraday high
*RES 2: $1.3245 Hourly congestion Jun 18
*RES 1: $1.3211 Jun 15 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3186 @1539GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3152/57 76.4% $1.2774-$1.4377,swing $1.3211-$1.3299
*SUP 2: $1.3107 50% Fibo of $1.1838-$1.4377
*SUP 3: $1.3095 Hourly support
*SUP 4: $1.3067 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday's recovery to $1.3447 was unable to remove the threat
of the Jun 7 'Doji' bearish candle close. As a result, we saw a sharp fall back
toward the May 29 low at $1.3204. The interim recovery has been unable to better
$1.3299 and then $1.3273, leaving the downside once again vulnerable. Today's
loss of $1.3204 sees $1.3157-$1.3152 next ahead of the 50% Fibo at $1.3107.
Resistance from $1.3211-$1.3245 stands in the way of any near term bounce.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Falters On Approach To The Y110.93 Swing Target
*RES 4: Y111.36/40 Equality rise from Y109.20, May 21 high
*RES 3: Y110.91/93 Jun 15 high, 1.618 swing Y110.27-Y109.20
*RES 2: Y110.62 Jun 18 high
*RES 1: Y110.20/30 1% vol, hourly resistance, Jun 18 low
*PRICE: Y110.06 @1544GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.51/60 50% Y108.11-Y110.91, 76.4% Y109.20-Y110.91
*SUP 2: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low
*SUP 3: Y109.05 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: Y108.77 76.4% Fibo of Y108.11-Y110.91
*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a rise to Y110.91, just shy of the swing target at
Y110.93, before suffering a setback. The subsequent loss of Y110.15 and
especially Y109.85 today, sees Y109.60-Y109.51 as the protection against a
Y109.20-Y109.18 return, where next questions would be asked of direction.
Resistance comes initially from between Y110.20-Y110.30 but back above Monday's
Y110.62 high now needed for impact.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Sharp Fall Continues As Y127.21-Y126.81 Support Gives Way
*RES 4: Y128.95 Hourly high Jun 14
*RES 3: Y128.52 Jun 18 high
*RES 2: Y128.05/10 Congestion area Jun 15-18
*RES 1: Y127.70/81 Jun 15, Jun 18 lows, now resistance
*PRICE: Y127.42 @1551GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.64 Intraday low
*SUP 2: Y126.33 2% volatility band
*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.35
*SUP 4: Y125.86 Equality fall from Y128.52 to Y130.36-Y127.70
*COMMENTARY* Y127.80-Y127.70 has been lost today leading to further breaks below
next Y127.21-Y126.81 support levels. A low of Y126.64 so far but currently not
much showing until the lower 2% volatility band at Y126.33, which in turn
protects against a further Y125.97-Y125.86 fall, where stronger support is
anticipated to materialise. In the meantime, those former Y127.70-Y127.81 lows
now present initial resistance to any bounce.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Once Again In The Middle Of The Well Travelled Range
*RES 4: Stg0.8837/42 Jun 7, May 4 highs
*RES 3: Stg0.8832 Jun 11, Jun 12 highs
*RES 2: Stg0.8810 Jun 1 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8790/00 Hourly highs/lows Jun 12-13
*PRICE: Stg0.8786 @1554GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8730/35 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8717 Jun 15 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8697 May 29 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8681/85 Apr 26 low, 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week once again faltered on the approach to the resistance of
note between Stg0.8837-Stg0.8842. Saw a high of Stg0.8832 but the subsequent
pullback from there has been relatively swift, with Stg0.8780-Stg0.8750 support
giving way and allowing a dip back to and slightly below the recent Stg0.8721-24
lows. Near term Stg0.8790-Stg0.8800 now provides resistance to any recovery,
Stg0.8697-Stg0.8681 next on a break below Stg0.8730-Stg0.8717.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Loss Of $0.7412-$0.7390 Support Opens Door To $0.7333-$0.7327
*RES 4: $0.7529 Jun 13 low, now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7481 Jun 15 high
*RES 2: $0.7428/30 Intraday high, hourly resistance
*RES 1: $0.7412 May 9 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7384 @1558GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7347 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $0.7327/33 61.8% of $0.6827-$0.8136, May 9 2017 low
*SUP 3: $0.7269 2018 bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677
*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall today, losing support from the May 9 low at
$0.7412 and then the 76.4% Fibo at $0.7390. A low of $0.7347 seen so far, as we
head towards the next area of support between the May 9 2017 low at $0.7333 and
the longer term Fibo retrace level at $0.7327. These currently protecting
against a deeper $0.7269-$0.7248 fall. In the interim, $0.7412-$0.7430 provides
a near term bar to any attempt at a recovery.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Continued Rise Breaks Through 9 Month Bull Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.3377/85 50% $1.4692-$1.2061, 76.4% $1.3794-$1.2061
*RES 3: $1.3348 Jun 21 high
*RES 2: $1.3329 2% volatility band 
*RES 1: $1.3292 Intraday high
*PRICE: $1.3272 @1605GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3210/20 Jun 18 high, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3192 Hourly base Jun 18 
*SUP 3: $1.3159 Jun 18 low
*SUP 4: $1.3121 Hourly low Jun 15
*COMMENTARY* After holding important near term support from above
$1.2950-$1.2921, last Thursday saw a sharp recovery. In turn, this has since
surpassed, $1.3125, $1.3199 and $1.3261 resistance. A high of $1.3292 so far on
the day, as we move above the 9 month bull channel top projection. Any higher
and the upper 2% volatility band is at $1.3329 today. In the meantime, any
setbacks should be held between $1.3220-$1.3192, else caution is advised.
     
GOLD TECHS: Fall Moves Toward $1267.2-$1262.3 Target Zone
*RES 4: $1303.5 Jun 7 high
*RES 3: $1294.5 Congestion area Jun 5-Jun 13
*RES 2: $1289.3 Jun 1 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1284.1 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1275.4 @1614GMT
*SUP 1: $1270.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2
*SUP 3: $1265.4 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1309.3
*SUP 4: $1262.3 Equality fall from $1326.0 to $1365.4-$1301.7
*COMMENTARY* Lost support briefly from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month
which raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the
December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's
$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and there is not much to stop an eventual
$1267.2-$1262.3 fall. In the meantime, $1309.3 resistance has blocked gains and
started a fresh fall. Resistance $1284.1-$1294.5, $1303.5 more important higher.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]