MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Back In Trouble, Fallout From $1.1721 Swift

*RES 4: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high

*RES 3: $1.1672 Jun 27 high

*RES 2: $1.1635 Jun 26 low, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1590/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1578 @1542GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1527 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.1497/08 1% volatility band, Jun 21 low

*SUP 3: $1.1448 50% Fibo of $1.0340-$1.2556

*SUP 4: $1.1376/77 Swing $1.1508-$1.1721, equality fall target

*COMMENTARY* The fallout since reaching $1.1721 on Tuesday has been swift,

revealing the underlying downtrend. The fall has however been held at $1.1527 so

far, leaving the key $1.1508-$1.1497 area untouched as yet. That said,

$1.1590-$1.1635 provides a strong near term resistance area and in fact it would

take back above $1.1672 for things to really improve. Below $1.1497 and the 50%

Fibo at $1.1448 next, ahead of dual $1.1377-$1.1376 support.

CABLE TECHS: Fresh Fall Moves Toward 7 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.3221 Jun 25 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3192 Jun 26 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3152 Hourly high Jun 27

*RES 1: $1.3115/25 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3088 @1547GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3065/75 Hourly support, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $1.3049 7 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: $1.3027 Oct 6 low

*SUP 4: $1.2970 1.618 swing of $1.3102-$1.3315

*COMMENTARY* All of the recovery since the month's earlier $1.3102 base has now

been whittled away, as we test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band

today. Any lower and the 7 week bear channel at $1.3049 and the Oct 6 low at

$1.3027 can slow the fall. Beneath here and the swing target at $1.2970 and the

equality fall target at $1.2944 are next likely support. Resistance

$1.3115-$1.3152 but currently back above $1.3192 needed for any impact.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Still Facing Y110.49-Y110.81 Resistance

*RES 4: Y111.25/40 1% volatility band, May 21 high

*RES 3: Y110.91 Jun 15 high

*RES 2: Y110.76/81 Jun 21 high, 1.618 swing Y110.49-Y109.97

*RES 1: Y110.49 Jun 27 high

*PRICE: Y110.40 @1552GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.90/97 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.69 Jun 27 low

*SUP 3: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*SUP 4: Y109.18/20 61.8% of Y108.11-Y110.91, Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout since the Jun 15 high at Y110.91 found a base at

Y109.37 and has been trying to improve ever since. Still has resistance from

between Y110.49-Y110.81 to scale, before that Y110.91 comes into view again. In

the interim, support comes from between Y109.97-Y109.69 with only back below the

latter spoiling recent upward momentum and pressure back on Y109.37-Y109.18.

Directly through Y110.91 and Y111.25-Y111.40 bars the way to Y111.86.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Fresh Fall Holds Above Y127.09-Y126.99 Support

*RES 4: Y128.85/94 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y130.36-Y124.62

*RES 3: Y128.46 Jun 26 high

*RES 2: Y128.20 Congestion area Jun 25-Jun 27

*RES 1: Y128.00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y127.85 @1557GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.99/09 Jun 21, Jun 20 lows

*SUP 2: Y126.62/64 1% volatility band, Jun 19 low

*SUP 3: Y125.97 76.4% Fibo of Y124.62-Y130.36

*SUP 4: Y125.27/34 1.618 swing Y126.64-Y128.85, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* This week saw another attempt to reach the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at Y128.94, attaining a high of Y128.85 before retreating on the back of some

overbought hourly conditions. In this respect, support from Y127.65-Y127.28 has

since been overcome leaving the main downside protection from Y127.09-Y126.99

exposed. Loss would put Y126.64 back under pressure. Resistance now

Y128.00-Y128.20 but Y128.46 currently provides a stiffer test higher.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Heads Toward 1% Vol Band After Breaking Recent Highs

*RES 4: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 3: Stg0.8886 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 2: Stg0.8871/77 Intraday high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8855/60 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8843 @1610GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8828 Jun 27 high, now support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion area Jun 25-27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high

*SUP 4: Stg0.8772 Initial recovery high Jun 21, now support

*COMMENTARY* Daily studies remained supportive and has now been successful in

its attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which had capped rallies

over the last couple of months. A high of Stg0.8771 so far on the day, as the

topside again tracks toward the upper 1% volatility band. This and the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 are the barriers to a higher Stg0.8911-Stg0.8922

move. Support now Stg0.8828-Stg0.8810 but loss of Stg0.8797 will disappoint.

AUSSIE TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure As Long Term Fibo Support Wavers

*RES 4: $0.7423 Jun 26 high

*RES 3: $0.7407 Jun 27 high

*RES 2: $0.7385/90 Hourly congestion area Jun 26-27

*RES 1: $0.7362 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7353 @1616GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7300/16 Hourly support, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7345-$0.7457

*SUP 3: $0.7252 Max 5th wave target in fall from $0.7677

*SUP 4: $0.7235 2018 bear channel base Proj'n, 2% vol band

*COMMENTARY* Last week's $0.7347-$0.7345 lows have given way now and the longer

term 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327, has had its cage rattled. A low of

$0.7323 on Wednesday, as we approach the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7316,

being the protection against a further $0.7300-$0.7252 fall. Meanwhile, $0.7362

provides immediate resistance but $0.7385-$0.7407 is tougher higher.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Loss Of $1.3261 Concerns After 76.4% Fibo Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3404 Equality rise from $1.2528 to $1.2249-$1.3125

*RES 3: $1.3385/87 76.4% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061, Jun 27 high

*RES 2: $1.3352 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3310/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3258 @1623GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3210/20 Jun 15 high, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3146/59 1% volatility band, Jun 18 low

*SUP 3: $1.3114 Jun 15 low

*SUP 4: $1.3052 Jun 13 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* This month's recovery, broke above the top of the 9 month bull

channel and also the Jun 2017 high at $1.3348. It has however found the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at $1.3385 a significant barrier. This and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 are the primary contenders to put a halt to this rise, at

least for the time being. Support from $1.3261 has been lost today, raising

corrective concerns of gains from at least the Jun 14 low at $1.2950.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Continues, $1248.1 Now Protects Against $1236.6 Return 

*RES 4: $1282.2 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1276.6 Jun 20 high

*RES 2: $1272.7 Jun 22 high

*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1250.0 @1627GMT

*SUP 1: $1248.1 3 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 3: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the December

2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise.

Below and with the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the risk is for a test

to the 3 month channel base at $1248.1. Resistance $1261.2-$1272.7 keeps focus

lower. The Dec 12 low at $1236.6 is next on the agenda below $1248.1.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]