MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Above Last Month's Low

*RES 4: $1.1747/57 1% vol band, equality rise from $1.1591

*RES 3: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high

*RES 2: $1.1693 Jun 29 high

*RES 1: $1.1665/77 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1665 @0748GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1590/91 Hourly support, Jul 2 low

*SUP 2: $1.1551 Hourly basing area Jun 28

*SUP 3: $1.1527 Jun 28 low

*SUP 4: $1.1508/13 Jun 21 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The consolidation pattern above last month's $1.1508 low continues

to grow, with the hold of $1.1590 support on Monday. Now looking at resistance

from between $1.1665-$1.1675, above which would allow another look at

$1.1693-$1.1721 and potentially the $1.1747-$1.1757 region. All this below the

key near term level, the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.1771. A loss of $1.1590 would

switch attention back to $1.1551-$1.1527.

CABLE TECHS: Consolidation Buoyed While $1.3095-$1.3085 Support Holds

*RES 4: $1.3288 1.618 swing of $1.3214-$1.3095

*RES 3: $1.3252 76.4% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050

*RES 2: $1.3214/21 61.8% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050, Jun 25 low

*RES 1: $1.3185/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3177 @0807GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3115 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.3085/95 Hourly support, Jul 2 low

*SUP 3: $1.3050/58 Jun 28 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3027 Oct 6 low, 7 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* A low of $1.3095 on Monday, which holding above $1.3085, kept near

term momentum with the topside. Now looking to $1.3185 resistance for next

clues, as hold above required before the chance of extending gains into

$1.3214-$1.3221. Through which would give the green light to a higher

$1.3252-$1.3288 rise. All below the key $1.3315-$1.3355 area. Support from

$1.3115, loss would caution and divert attention back between $1.3085-$1.3027.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Rally Continues Toward Next Y111.40-Y111.44 Resistance

*RES 4: Y111.86 1.618 swing of Y110.91-Y109.37

*RES 3: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 2: Y111.40/44 May 21 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y111.14 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y110.94 @0818GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.45/50 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, now support

*SUP 3: Y109.69 5 week rising support line, Jun 27 low

*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the end of

last month. This week has seen a rally through the previous Y110.91 high,

reaching Y111.14 so far today, as we move towards the next set of resistance

between Y111.40-Y111.86. Support remains from above Y110.50-Y110.45 for the time

being. This protecting against a deeper Y110.05-Y109.69 fall, the latter the Jun

27 low and also where the recent uptrend lies.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Attempting To Test 1% Vol Band And 5 Month Trendline

*RES 4: Y130.36 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: Y130.17 1.618 swing of Y129.50-Y128.42

*RES 2: Y129.91/96 Swing Y128.85-Y127.14, 5 mth bear channel

*RES 1: Y129.61 1% volatility band

*PRICE: Y129.38 @0830GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.73 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Y128.42 Jul 2 low

*SUP 3: Y127.93/95 Jun 28 high, initial high Jun 29

*SUP 4: Y127.66 Hourly base Jun 28

*COMMENTARY* Monday's Y129.50 high is under challenge today, as we head towards

the upper 1% volatility band at Y129.61. Any higher and the 5 month bear channel

top at Y129.96 then comes into view. As a consequence, nearest support rises to

the day's Y128.73 low, ahead of yesterday's Y128.42 pullback. Loss here would

disappoint and put further Y130.17-Y130.36 gains in abeyance, as a correction of

recent gains from Y127.14 begins to bite.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Held Between 76.4% Fibo Level And 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.8921 8 month bear channel top

*RES 3: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 2: Stg0.8901 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Stg0.8886/90 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high

*PRICE: Stg0.8844 @0837GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8828/30 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8810/15 Congestion area Jun 25-27

*SUP 3: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high

*SUP 4: Stg0.8772 Initial recovery high Jun 21, now support

*COMMENTARY* Daily studies remained supportive and has now been successful in

its attempt to break, the Stg0.8832-Stg0.8842 area, which had capped rallies

over the last couple of months. A high of Stg0.8890 on last Friday, as the

topside again tracks toward the upper 1% volatility band. This and the 76.4%

Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 are the barriers to a higher Stg0.8911-Stg0.8921

move. Support now Stg0.8828-Stg0.8810 but loss of Stg0.8797 will disappoint.

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7411 Break Required Before Any Real Recovery Likely

*RES 4: $0.7454/58 1% vol, Jun 22 high, 38.2% Fibo retrace 

*RES 3: $0.7423 Jun 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7407/11 Jun 27, Jun 29 highs

*RES 1: $0.7385/90 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7388 @0842GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7306/10 1% volatility band, Jul 2 low

*SUP 2: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7334-$0.7457

*SUP 3: $0.7269 1.618 swing of $0.7323-$0.7411

*SUP 4: $0.7248 1.618 swing of $0.7412-$0.7677

*COMMENTARY* $0.7347-$0.7345 support gave way last week and the longer term

61.8% Fibo retrace level at $0.7327 was  breached yesterday, as we so far hold

above the lower 1% volatility band at $0.7306. This being the protection against

a further $0.7276-$0.7248 fall, a trio of swing targets, ahead of the 6 month

bear channel base and lower 2% band at $0.7220-$0.7225. Resistance moves to

$0.7385-$0.7390, ahead last Friday's $0.7411 high.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3326 Initial pullback low Jun 27, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3285/90 Congestion Jun 25-Jun 27

*RES 2: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high

*RES 1: $1.3225/42 Jul 2 high, Jun 28 low

*PRICE: $1.3160 @0855GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3150/55 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3126/36 1% vol, Jun 29 low, 38.2% $1.2729-$1.3387

*SUP 3: $1.3114 Jun 15 low

*SUP 4: $1.3067 Jun 5 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test

to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding

rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,

raising corrective concerns, $1.3136-$1.3114 now the protection against a deeper

$1.3067-$1.3047 fall. Nearest resistance $1.3225-$1.3261.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Approaching Assignation With Last December's Low

*RES 4: $1272.7 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: $1264.5 Congestion area Jun 21-26 

*RES 2: $1261.2 Jun 21 low

*RES 1: $1255.8 Jun 29 high

*PRICE: $1245.1 @0913GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 2: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 3: $1224.5 Equality fall from $1272.7 to $1309.4-$1261.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of

May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with

the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the base of the 3 month bear channel

base has been exposed, leaving the Dec 12 low at $1236.6 as next support on the

agenda. Any lower and look to two equality fall targets between $1226.2-$1224.5.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]