MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Consolidation Continues Above Last Month's Low

*RES 4: $1.1771 76.4% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508

*RES 3: $1.1753/57 1% vol band, equality rise from $1.1591

*RES 2: $1.1721 61.8% Fibo of $1.1852-$1.1508, Jun 26 high

*RES 1: $1.1693 Jun 29 high

*PRICE: $1.1641 @1655GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1610 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1591 Jul 2 low, 61.8% Fibo of $1.1527-$1.1693

*SUP 3: $1.1566 76.4% Fibo of $1.1527-$1.1693

*SUP 4: $1.1527 Jun 28 low

*COMMENTARY* The consolidation pattern above last month's $1.1508 low continues

to grow, with the hold of $1.1590 support on Monday. The subsequent failure to

deal with $1.1693 resistance suggests another move down within the recent range.

Look to $1.1610-$1.1591 again for support, with any overshoot likely to test

$1.1566. All this is playing out below the key near term level, the 76.4% Fibo

retrace at $1.1771. All rallies carry no threat while capped here.

CABLE TECHS: Range Trading Prevails During This Consolidation Phase

*RES 4: $1.3315 Jun 22 high

*RES 3: $1.3288 1.618 swing of $1.3214-$1.3095

*RES 2: $1.3252 76.4% Fibo of $1.3315-$1.3050

*RES 1: $1.3228 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.3220 @1657GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3140/45 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3115 Jul 3 low

*SUP 3: $1.3095 Jul 2 low

*SUP 4: $1.3050/60 Jun 28 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Monday's $1.3095 low kept near term momentum with the topside. The

subsequent move back above $1.3185 resistance has allowed the chance to extend

gains into $1.3221-$1.3228 resistance. Through which would give the green light

to a higher $1.3252-$1.3288 rise. All below the key $1.3315-$1.3355 area.

Support $1.3145-$1.3140 and then from $1.3115-$1.3095, loss would caution and

divert attention back down the range and on $1.3060-$1.3050.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Correcting Recent Gains, Y109.79-Y109.75 Key Support

*RES 4: Y111.60 76.4% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63

*RES 3: Y111.40 May 21 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Y111.14 Jul 3 high

*RES 1: Y110.85/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y110.52 @1659GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.25 50% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14

*SUP 2: Y110.05 Jun 25 high, 61.8% Fibo of Y109.37-Y111.14

*SUP 3: Y109.75/79 6 week rising support line, 76.4% fibo

*SUP 4: Y109.37 Jun 25, Jun 26 lows

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to improve since the setback to Y109.37 at the end of

last month. This week has seen a rally through the previous Y110.91 high,

reaching Y111.14 so far but unable as yet to test the next set of resistance

between Y111.40-Y111.86. Subsequently correcting gains from that Y109.37 level,

with support from Y110.25-Y110.05 protecting the near term key area between

Y109.79-Y109.75, where the recent uptrend lies.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Rally Fails To Test 1% Vol Band And 5 Month Trendline

*RES 4: Y130.36 Jun 14 high

*RES 3: Y129.89/91 5 mth bear channel, swing Y128.85-Y127.14

*RES 2: Y129.57/63 Jul 3 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 1: Y129.00/10 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y128.65 @1701GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.35/42 50% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57, Jul 2 low

*SUP 2: Y128.07 61.8% Fibo of Y127.14-Y129.57

*SUP 3: Y127.93/95 Jun 28 high, initial high Jun 29

*SUP 4: Y127.66/71 Hourly low Jun 28, 76.4% Fibo level

*COMMENTARY* The rally still hampered by the upper 1% volatility band on

Tuesday. A high of Y129.57, before giving up ground and beginning a correction

of recent gains from the Jun 28 low at Y127.14.  The dip is moving back towards

a 50% retrace so far, this at Y128.35 currently keeping a deeper Y128.07-Y127.71

fall at bay. Will need to see gains back above Y129.10 before the upside regains

some confidence, Y128.89-Y129.91 then waiting above Y129.63.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Capped Between 76.4% Fibo And 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Stg0.8911 1.618 swing of Stg0.8837-Stg0.8717

*RES 3: Stg0.8903 1% volatility band

*RES 2: Stg0.8886/91 76.4% Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620, Jun 29 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8865/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8805 @1605GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8797/01 Jun 27 low, Jun 20 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8784 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891

*SUP 3: Stg0.8759 76.4% Fibo of Stg0.8718-Stg0.8891

*SUP 4: Stg0.8726 Jun 21 low, 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Stg0.8891 has been the top of the rally so far, just through the

76.4% Fibo retrace level at Stg0.8886 but shy of the upper 1% volatility band at

Stg0.8903 and the swing target at Stg0.8911. All of these beneath the 8 month

bear channel top, which currently resides at Stg0.8920. Subsequent slip has

broken below initial Stg0.8810 support, loss will allow a deeper setback with

Stg0.8801-Stg0.8797 then protecting Stg0.8784-Stg0.8759.

AUSSIE TECHS: Pullback Underway As $0.7423-$0.7425 Area Caps Again

*RES 4: $0.7528 2% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7493 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310

*RES 2: $0.7450/57 38.2% Fibo retrace, 1% vol, Jun 22 high 

*RES 1: $0.7423/25 Jun 26, intraday highs

*PRICE: $0.7380 @1606GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7365/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7335/40 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3

*SUP 3: $0.7307/10 Jul 2 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7276 1.618 swing of $0.7334-$0.7457

*COMMENTARY* Has moved slightly through $0.7411 resistance today but without

much conviction as yet. A high of $0.7425 before giving up some ground, on the

back of some overbought hourly conditions. Now looking towards $0.7365-$0.7335

for support and as the protection against a return to the recent $0.7307 low and

potentially lower. Meanwhile, will take a mover back above $0.7425, before the

chance of continuing the rally to $0.7450-$0.7457 next.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 76.4% Fibo Level Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3261/68 Jun 22 low, Jun 29 high

*RES 3: $1.3225/42 Jul 2 high, Jun 28 low

*RES 2: $1.3195 Hourly congestion Jul 2-Jul 3

*RES 1: $1.3176 Hourly recovery high Jul 3

*PRICE: $1.3146 @1608GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3112/14 Intraday, Jun 15 lows

*SUP 2: $1.3067/71 Jun 5 high, 1.618 swing $1.3130-$1.3225

*SUP 3: $1.3058 50% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387

*SUP 4: $1.2977/80 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387

*COMMENTARY* Last month's recovery reached $1.3387 on Jun 27, basically a test

to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.3385. The latter and the equality rise

target at $1.3404 were the primary contenders to put a halt to the preceding

rise from the May low at $1.2729. Support from $1.3261 has since been lost,

raising corrective concerns, $1.3114-$1.3112 now the protection against a deeper

$1.3067-$1.3058 fall. Nearest resistance $1.3176-$1.3195, then $1.3225 above.

GOLD TECHS: Decline Holds Above Last December's Low

*RES 4: $1284.1 Jun 19 high

*RES 3: $1272.7 May 21 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1264.5 Congestion area Jun 21-26 

*RES 1: $1261.2 Jun 21 low, intraday high

*PRICE: $1256.0 @1609GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 Dec 12 low

*SUP 2: $1226.2 Equality fall from $1309.4 to $1365.4-$1282.2

*SUP 3: $1224.5 Equality fall from $1272.7 to $1309.4-$1261.2

*SUP 4: $1215.7 61.8% Fibo of $1122.6-$1380

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area toward the end of

May. This the rising support line at the time, from the December 2016 lows and

the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's $1236.6-$1366.2 rise. Below and with

the $1267.2-$1262.3 supports now exceeded, the base of the 3 month bear channel

base has been exposed, leaving the Dec 12 low at $1236.6 as next support on the

agenda. Any lower and look to two equality fall targets between $1226.2-$1224.5.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]