MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fails At 55-DMA Hurdle Once More

*RES 4: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 3: $1.1744 High July 17

*RES 2: $1.1722 200-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1649 Hourly support July 17 & 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1626 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $1.1551 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1722) remains lacking and sees

immediate pressure back on the $1.1589 support. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm focus on retests of 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA, easing bearish

pressure, and above the 55-WMA ($1.1927) to shift initial focus to

$1.1977-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1977) & 200 ($1.1982) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.2995 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 3: $1.3198 Hourly resistance July 17a 

*RES 2: $1.3125 Hourly resistance July 17 

*RES 1: $1.3069 Low July 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3140 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2849 Low Aug 31 

*SUP 3: $1.2777 Monthly Low Aug 24 

*SUP 4: $1.2587 Monthly Low June 21 2017

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble the 55-DMA ($1.3327) and the key $1.3662

resistance resulted in a sharp sell-off Tuesday that sees immediate pressure

back on $1.2995-having made fresh 2018 & 11mth highs. Bears continue to look for

a close below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are

building and weighing. Bulls now need a close above $1.3125 to gain breathing

room. A close above the key $1.3362 resistance remains needed to confirm a break

of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $1.3446.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.17

*RES 4: Y114.72 Monthly High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 1: Y113.26 200-WMA

*PRICE: Y112.96 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.55 High July 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue with bulls currently focused on the

Y113.24-74 region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily

studies and the Bollinger top (Y113.02) are the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below Y112.17 to ease

bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-111.01 where

key DMAs and the bull channel base (Y110.81) off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 now resistance

*RES 3: Y132.26 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.90 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y131.34 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y130.26 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.55). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.26) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to

shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to

Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 2018 Highs In The Sights 

*RES 4: Gbp0.9043 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8912 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8897 Hourly resistance July 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8872 Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8814 Low July 16

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8832) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce which

resulted in continued fresh 4mth highs. Immediate focus is now on the Gbp0.8967

2018 high. Bulls look for a close above 2018 highs to initially target Gbp0.9043

Sept 14 highs. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8872 to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8779-0.8832 where key DMAs are situated.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Returns To $1.3268

*RES 4: $1.3574 - Daily Bull channel top (B) 

*RES 3: $1.3524 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $1.3384 - Monthly High June 27 

*RES 1: $1.3268 - High June 29

*PRICE: $1.3239 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3186 - Hourly support July 17

*SUP 2: $1.3101 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: $1.3067 - Low July 9

*SUP 4: $1.3038 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on previous hesitation around the 21-DMA

($1.3206) with the pair bouncing from the bull channel base off Apr lows and

reconfirming its significance. Pressure has returned to the key $1.3268

resistance. Bulls need a close above $1.3268 to shift initial focus to $1.3384

June highs and overall focus to $1.3524-74 where daily bull channel tops are

noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3186 to gain breathing room and return

focus to layers of support $1.3038-1.3101 where the 55-DMA and a bull channel

base are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7308 To Target $0.7142

*RES 4: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7442 - High July 16

*RES 2: $0.7394 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7374 - Low July 17 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7356 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7323 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA ($0.7394) sees bears gain breathing room

with below $0.7308 still needed to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017 lows.

Daily studies remain well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance

have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls still need a

close above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move back to $0.7586-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7586) & 200 ($0.7680) DMAs are located

with above $0.7552 confirming.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Gaining Traction Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1229.2 - Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: $1222.5 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1214.0 - Low July 12 2017 

*SUP 2: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 3: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1180.7 - Weekly Low Jan 27 2017

*COMMENTARY: Flirtation with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and

pressure on the 200-WMA have taken their toll with gold now gaining traction

below the 200-WMA and bears focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger

base ($1226.8) is the key concern for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bulls now need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above

$1260.2 to return initial focus to $1271.4-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]