MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Still Unable To Break Clear Of $1.1740-$1.1745 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.1839 Equality rise from $1.1575 to $1.1527-$1.1791

*RES 3: $1.1808/11 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.1751-$1.1654

*RES 2: $1.1791 Jul 9 high 

*RES 1: $1.1751 Jul 23 high

*PRICE: $1.1662 @1532GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1645/54 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20, Jul 24 low

*SUP 2: $1.1613/26 Jul 13 low, Jul 20 lows

*SUP 3: $1.1569/75 1% volatility band, Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.1575 1% volatility band, Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came under pressure last week before

launching into a correction of losses seen since the Jul 9 high at $1.1791. This

reached $1.1751 on Monday, just through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1740,

and the last prominent peak at $1.1745. Will need to see a maintained rally

through here, before thoughts can turn to $1.1791-$1.1811 again and perhaps

$1.1839-$1.1852. Nearest support now again from between $1.1654-$1.1645.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Meets Resistance From The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: $1.3293/98 Jul 16 high, 7 week bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.3269/72 Jul 17 high, equality rise from $1.3071

*RES 2: $1.3214/17 76.4% Fibo of $1.3293-$1.2958, Jul 16 low

*RES 1: $1.3195 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3146 @1538GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3124/26 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3105/15 Hourly congestion Jul 23-24

*SUP 3: $1.3071 Jul 24 low

*SUP 4: $1.3013 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the base of the now 7 week bear channel come under

pressure, before rallying strongly on Friday. The recovery has now moved through

$1.3165, which sees the $1.3214-$1.3217 area come back into view. As a

consequence, support moves up $1.3150-$1.3133. Loss would disappoint now and

open up deeper $1.3126-$1.3105 corrective potential. Resistance from $1.3195,

above needed to reintroduce upside interest.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Key Y110.65 Level Comes Under Challenge

*RES 4: Y112.05 Jul 19 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y111.55/58 Jul 23 high, 38.2% of Y113.18-Y110.59

*RES 2: Y111.39 Jul 25 high

*RES 1: Y111.20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y111.08 @1543GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.59/65 Intraday low, 50% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18

*SUP 2: Y110.26/28 1.618 swing of Y110.75-Y111.55, Jul 4 low

*SUP 3: Y110.05 61.8% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18

*SUP 4: Y109.64 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The 8 week rising support line, at Y110.76 by time today, has come

under pressure but is still trying to cling to support from around the 50% Fibo

retrace level at Y110.65. Any lower and the Y110.28-Y110.26 area provides next

support, ahead of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.05. In the interim,

resistance now comes from Y111.20 but a move back above the Y111.39-Y111.55

region is needed, before any real hope of a recovery.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Pivotal Support Now Seen Between Y129.43-Y129.26

*RES 4: Y130.88 Jul 18 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y130.45 Jul 23 high

*RES 2: Y130.29 Jul 25 high

*RES 1: Y130.05/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.62 @1545GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.41/43 2 mth daily rising support line, 1% vol

*SUP 2: Y129.26 76.4% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99

*SUP 3: Y128.76 Former 2018 resistance line, now support

*SUP 4: Y128.49 Jul 4 low

*COMMENTARY* Support from Y129.43-Y129.41, the lower 1% volatility band and

current level of the 2 month rising support line, is the near term downside

attraction. This and then the slightly lower 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y129.26

are the guardians against the overall bias returning to the downside. Meanwhile,

resistance from between Y130.05-Y130.15, although a move back above

Y130.29-Y130.45 is required to generate real interest.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Continues, Stg0.8866-Stg0.8850 Now Next Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8968/80 Mar 7 high, 3 month bull channel, 1% vol

*RES 3: Stg0.8958 Jul 20 high 

*RES 2: Stg0.8936 Jul 23 high 

*RES 1: Stg0.8911/19 Jul 23, Jul 20 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @1551GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8865/66 Intraday low, Jul 13 high

*SUP 2: Stg0.8850 Congestion area Jun 28-Jul 17

*SUP 3: Stg0.8816 Jul 16 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week's break above the 9 month bear channel top at Stg0.8908

has seen a rally towards next key resistance from the Stg0.8968-Stg0.8975

region. This the Mar 7 high, the current level of the 3 month bull channel top

projection and the upper 1% volatility band. Failure to break here has seen a

pullback through Stg0.8999-Stg0.8890 support. Loss cautions and opens up deeper

corrective potential, with Stg0.8866-Stg0.8850 now in the frame.

AUSSIE TECHS: Fresh Rise Fails To Trouble $0.7484-$0.7501 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7501 2018 daily falling resistance line

*RES 3: $0.7484/93 Jul 9-10 highs, 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310

*RES 2: $0.7465 Jul 25 high

*RES 1: $0.7435/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7385 @1557GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7370/75 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7343/59 Jul 18, Jul 24 lows

*SUP 3: $0.7331 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.7310/18 Jul 2, Jul 3, Jul 20 lows

*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find a base from within the $0.7318-$0.7310 area.

The latest fall held around the lower 1% volatility band last Friday. The

subsequent bounce has now seen us move above $0.7443-$0.7445 resistance. The

latter a 76.4% Fibo retrace of losses from the the Jul 9-10 highs at $0.7484.

Higher and the $0.7484-$0.7501 region becomes the bar to any further gains. Loss

of yesterday's $0.7392 low cautions, $0.7375-$0.7343 support.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Fall Holds Above Important $1.3017-$1.3015 Support

*RES 4: $1.3150/60 Congestion area Jul 20-24

*RES 3: $1.3136 Jul 24 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3114 Jul 20, Jul 23 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.3090/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3079 @1600GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3017 Equality fall from $1.3193 to $1.3290-$1.3114

*SUP 2: $1.3015 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.2980 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387

*SUP 4: $1.2926 1.618 swing of $1.3065-$1.3290

*COMMENTARY* $1.3067-$1.3058 support has been broken over the last 24 hours,

which currently leaves the $1.3017-$1.3015 area as the next key support. While

held above here, then look to $1.3090-$1.3095 for initial resistance, with two

previous $1.3114-$1.3136 lows, then acting as a potential brake higher. Below

$1.3015 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.2980 becomes the next focus,

ahead of the $1.2926 swing target.

GOLD TECHS: $1238.0 The Initial Bar To Recovery Potential

*RES 4: $1266.0 Jul 9 high

*RES 3: $1253.1 76.4% Fibo of $1266.0-$1211.4

*RES 2: $1245.7 Jul 16 high

*RES 1: $1238.0 Jul 3 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1226.5 @1604GMT

*SUP 1: $1216.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1211.4 Jul 19 low

*SUP 3: $1204.8 Jul 10 2017 low

*SUP 4: $1195.0 Mar 10 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week slipped below support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $1215.7 and posted a low of $1211.4, before staging a near term recovery.

This meets first resistance of note from the Jul 3 low at $1238.0. Back above

here would allow a further $1245.7 rise, with the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1253.1 a stiffer test above. Meanwhile, support rises to $1216.9, loss would

caution again, $1204.8 the next support to watch below $1211.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]