Trial now
USDCAD TECHS

Needle Still Points South

US TSYS

Yields Bounce as Equities Make New Monthly Highs

AUDUSD TECHS

Heading North

EURJPY TECHS

Bull Rally Accelerates

COLOMBIA

Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

By Les Castell
     
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Still Unable To Break Clear Of $1.1740-$1.1745 Resistance
*RES 4: $1.1839 Equality rise from $1.1575 to $1.1527-$1.1791
*RES 3: $1.1808/11 1% vol band, 1.618 swing $1.1751-$1.1654
*RES 2: $1.1791 Jul 9 high 
*RES 1: $1.1751 Jul 23 high
*PRICE: $1.1662 @1532GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1645/54 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20, Jul 24 low
*SUP 2: $1.1613/26 Jul 13 low, Jul 20 lows
*SUP 3: $1.1569/75 1% volatility band, Jul 20 low
*SUP 4: $1.1575 1% volatility band, Jul 20 low
*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came under pressure last week before
launching into a correction of losses seen since the Jul 9 high at $1.1791. This
reached $1.1751 on Monday, just through the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1.1740,
and the last prominent peak at $1.1745. Will need to see a maintained rally
through here, before thoughts can turn to $1.1791-$1.1811 again and perhaps
$1.1839-$1.1852. Nearest support now again from between $1.1654-$1.1645.
     
CABLE TECHS: Recovery Meets Resistance From The 76.4% Fibo Retrace Level
*RES 4: $1.3293/98 Jul 16 high, 7 week bear channel top
*RES 3: $1.3269/72 Jul 17 high, equality rise from $1.3071
*RES 2: $1.3214/17 76.4% Fibo of $1.3293-$1.2958, Jul 16 low
*RES 1: $1.3195 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3146 @1538GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3124/26 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3105/15 Hourly congestion Jul 23-24
*SUP 3: $1.3071 Jul 24 low
*SUP 4: $1.3013 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the base of the now 7 week bear channel come under
pressure, before rallying strongly on Friday. The recovery has now moved through
$1.3165, which sees the $1.3214-$1.3217 area come back into view. As a
consequence, support moves up $1.3150-$1.3133. Loss would disappoint now and
open up deeper $1.3126-$1.3105 corrective potential. Resistance from $1.3195,
above needed to reintroduce upside interest.
     
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Key Y110.65 Level Comes Under Challenge
*RES 4: Y112.05 Jul 19 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y111.55/58 Jul 23 high, 38.2% of Y113.18-Y110.59
*RES 2: Y111.39 Jul 25 high
*RES 1: Y111.20 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y111.08 @1543GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.59/65 Intraday low, 50% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18
*SUP 2: Y110.26/28 1.618 swing of Y110.75-Y111.55, Jul 4 low
*SUP 3: Y110.05 61.8% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18
*SUP 4: Y109.64 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The 8 week rising support line, at Y110.76 by time today, has come
under pressure but is still trying to cling to support from around the 50% Fibo
retrace level at Y110.65. Any lower and the Y110.28-Y110.26 area provides next
support, ahead of the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at Y110.05. In the interim,
resistance now comes from Y111.20 but a move back above the Y111.39-Y111.55
region is needed, before any real hope of a recovery.
     
EURO-YEN TECHS: Pivotal Support Now Seen Between Y129.43-Y129.26
*RES 4: Y130.88 Jul 18 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y130.45 Jul 23 high
*RES 2: Y130.29 Jul 25 high
*RES 1: Y130.05/15 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y129.62 @1545GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.41/43 2 mth daily rising support line, 1% vol
*SUP 2: Y129.26 76.4% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99
*SUP 3: Y128.76 Former 2018 resistance line, now support
*SUP 4: Y128.49 Jul 4 low
*COMMENTARY* Support from Y129.43-Y129.41, the lower 1% volatility band and
current level of the 2 month rising support line, is the near term downside
attraction. This and then the slightly lower 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y129.26
are the guardians against the overall bias returning to the downside. Meanwhile,
resistance from between Y130.05-Y130.15, although a move back above
Y130.29-Y130.45 is required to generate real interest.
     
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Continues, Stg0.8866-Stg0.8850 Now Next Support
*RES 4: Stg0.8968/80 Mar 7 high, 3 month bull channel, 1% vol
*RES 3: Stg0.8958 Jul 20 high 
*RES 2: Stg0.8936 Jul 23 high 
*RES 1: Stg0.8911/19 Jul 23, Jul 20 lows, now resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @1551GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8865/66 Intraday low, Jul 13 high
*SUP 2: Stg0.8850 Congestion area Jun 28-Jul 17
*SUP 3: Stg0.8816 Jul 16 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8802 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week's break above the 9 month bear channel top at Stg0.8908
has seen a rally towards next key resistance from the Stg0.8968-Stg0.8975
region. This the Mar 7 high, the current level of the 3 month bull channel top
projection and the upper 1% volatility band. Failure to break here has seen a
pullback through Stg0.8999-Stg0.8890 support. Loss cautions and opens up deeper
corrective potential, with Stg0.8866-Stg0.8850 now in the frame.
     
AUSSIE TECHS: Fresh Rise Fails To Trouble $0.7484-$0.7501 Resistance
*RES 4: $0.7501 2018 daily falling resistance line
*RES 3: $0.7484/93 Jul 9-10 highs, 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310
*RES 2: $0.7465 Jul 25 high
*RES 1: $0.7435/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $0.7385 @1557GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7370/75 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7343/59 Jul 18, Jul 24 lows
*SUP 3: $0.7331 1% volatility band
*SUP 4: $0.7310/18 Jul 2, Jul 3, Jul 20 lows
*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find a base from within the $0.7318-$0.7310 area.
The latest fall held around the lower 1% volatility band last Friday. The
subsequent bounce has now seen us move above $0.7443-$0.7445 resistance. The
latter a 76.4% Fibo retrace of losses from the the Jul 9-10 highs at $0.7484.
Higher and the $0.7484-$0.7501 region becomes the bar to any further gains. Loss
of yesterday's $0.7392 low cautions, $0.7375-$0.7343 support.
     
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Fall Holds Above Important $1.3017-$1.3015 Support
*RES 4: $1.3150/60 Congestion area Jul 20-24
*RES 3: $1.3136 Jul 24 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.3114 Jul 20, Jul 23 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3090/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3079 @1600GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3017 Equality fall from $1.3193 to $1.3290-$1.3114
*SUP 2: $1.3015 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: $1.2980 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*SUP 4: $1.2926 1.618 swing of $1.3065-$1.3290
*COMMENTARY* $1.3067-$1.3058 support has been broken over the last 24 hours,
which currently leaves the $1.3017-$1.3015 area as the next key support. While
held above here, then look to $1.3090-$1.3095 for initial resistance, with two
previous $1.3114-$1.3136 lows, then acting as a potential brake higher. Below
$1.3015 and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level at $1.2980 becomes the next focus,
ahead of the $1.2926 swing target.
     
GOLD TECHS: $1238.0 The Initial Bar To Recovery Potential
*RES 4: $1266.0 Jul 9 high
*RES 3: $1253.1 76.4% Fibo of $1266.0-$1211.4
*RES 2: $1245.7 Jul 16 high
*RES 1: $1238.0 Jul 3 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1226.5 @1604GMT
*SUP 1: $1216.9 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1211.4 Jul 19 low
*SUP 3: $1204.8 Jul 10 2017 low
*SUP 4: $1195.0 Mar 10 2017 low
*COMMENTARY* Last week slipped below support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level
at $1215.7 and posted a low of $1211.4, before staging a near term recovery.
This meets first resistance of note from the Jul 3 low at $1238.0. Back above
here would allow a further $1245.7 rise, with the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
$1253.1 a stiffer test above. Meanwhile, support rises to $1216.9, loss would
caution again, $1204.8 the next support to watch below $1211.4.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]