EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- GREEN LAWMAKER SAY NO PROGRESS ON DEBT BRAKE TALKS
- RUSSIA, US NEGOTIATORS TO MEET ON THURSDAY, RUSSIA SAYS
- GOVT SHUTDOWN RISK TICKS UP AS SCHUMER WITHHOLDS DEM SUPPORT
- BOJ’S UEDA EXPECTS BOTH REAL WAGES AND CONSUMPTION TO IMPROVE
Figure 1: Government Shutdown in 2025, % Implied Probability
Source: Polymarket
NEWS
GERMANY (MNI): Greens-No Progress on Debt Brake Talks, Bundestag Meets at 1200CET
With the Constitutional Court's decision on petitions from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and far-left Die Linke to halt the passage of the debt brake reform still pending, the old Bundestag convenes today at 1200CET (0700ET, 1100GMT) to begin debate on the package. With a two-thirds majority required to pass the debt brake reform, the stance of the environmentalist Greens remains crucial.
Parliamentary group leader Katharina Dröge said to ARD earlier that due to the lack of progress in talks with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) "it remains the case that we Greens will not support this draft bill." Green lawmaker Britta Hasselmann has also said that 'no progress' has been made in talks.
US/RUSSIA (BBG): Russia, US Negotiators to Meet on Thursday, Russia Says: Tass
Russian officials will discuss with their US counterparts the agreements reached in Jeddah between the US and Ukraine, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova says, according to Tass.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (BBG): Russia Says It Retook Key Town in Kursk Region Ahead of US Talks
Russia said it expelled Ukrainian troops from a key town in the Kursk region ahead of talks with the US, bringing President Vladimir Putin closer to his goal of completely dislodging Kyiv’s forces from his country. Russian forces retook Sudzha, a border town that has a crucial gas transportation hub nearby, the Defense Ministry said in a statement Thursday on Telegram. Russian state media on Wednesday broadcast footage of troops raising flags in two locations in the town center.
US/CHINA (MNI): China Has Been in Communication With U.S. On Trade
MNI (Beijing) China has communicatied with with relevant departments in the U.S. government regarding trade issues, said He Yongqian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, at a press conference on Thursday, adding that Beijing hopes to work with Washington in the spirit of mutual respect. The Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) had requested an explanation from Walmart regarding reports the retailer asked Chinese suppliers to absorb the impact of additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods by reducing prices, He said, without providing further details.
US (MNI): Govt Shutdown Risk Ticks Up as Schumer Withholds Dem Support From House CR
The chance of a government shutdown on Saturday increased after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Democrat senators should withhold their votes from the full-year funding measure that passed the House of Representatives this week. Schumer said on the Senate floor: “Funding the government should be a bipartisan effort but Republicans chose a partisan path… Because of that, Republicans do not have the votes in the Senate to invoke cloture on the House CR.” Schumer said he would endorse a plan for a shorter CR through April 11 to allow time for appropriators to work on a bipartisan omnibus. A shorter CR could theoretically be included as an amendment to the House package, although Republican leadership have dismissed this option.
ECB (BBG): ECB Will Be Back to 2% Target at End of Year, Nagel Tells BBC
Euro-area inflation will return to the European Central Bank’s 2% target by the end of 2025, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel told the BBC. “We will achieve price stability this year,” the Bundesbank president said in an interview. “We are back to our target at the end of this year - this is good news.” The ECB last week presented new economic forecasts that showed it reaching the 2% goal in early 2026. That was mainly due to energy prices, which retreated after the central bank’s cut-off date for the projections.
UK (BBG): London to Suffer UK’s Worst Drop in House Prices, RICS Says
London is expected to record the largest drop in house prices in the UK in the near term, according to property agents, as the capital is disproportionately hit by economic uncertainty and higher taxes. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ indicator of new buyer enquiries across the country weakened to its lowest level since November 2023. Property surveyors also reported a fall in agreed home sales in February.
BOJ (BBG): Expect Both Real Wages and Consumption to Improve - Ueda
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda says that he expects real wages and consumer spending to improve as import inflation subsides while robust wage gains continue. Japan’s inflationary trend that removes temporary factors is still below the BOJ’s 2% inflation target, Ueda says in response to questions in parliament. Food prices are currently helping push up inflation. A shift in the view that wages and inflation don’t change is important.
POLAND (FT): Poland’s President Urges US to Move Nuclear Warheads to Polish Territory
Poland’s president has called on the US to transfer nuclear weapons to Polish territory as a deterrent against future Russian aggression, a request that is likely to be perceived as highly provocative in Moscow. Andrzej Duda said it was “obvious” that President Donald Trump could redeploy US nuclear warheads stored in western Europe or the US to Poland, a proposal the Polish leader said he recently discussed with Keith Kellogg, US special envoy for Ukraine.
S. KOREA (BBG): South Korea to Scrutinize Steel Imports in US Tariff Response
South Korea will strengthen its scrutiny of metals imports to protect its producers from potential dumping in the local market after President Donald Trump proceeded with plans to apply 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. South Korea, a major metals producer in Asia, refrained from taking any immediate retaliation steps after the duties took effect Wednesday. Instead, Seoul sent its trade minister to Washington to accelerate negotiations with the Trump administration and pledged to come up with measures to support its companies by the end of this month.
CORPORATE (BBG): Intel CEO Signals That He’ll Stick With Contentious Foundry Plan
Incoming Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan is signaling that he’ll stick with his predecessor’s plan to make chips for other companies, even as he vows to learn from past mistakes. Tan, who was named to the CEO job on Wednesday, sent a letter to employees before meeting with staff in the afternoon, offering a rough sketch of his plans for the embattled chipmaker. Part of the message: He will keep working to make Intel a top foundry - a business that produces chips for outside clients. That endeavor has been costly for Intel so far, and contributed to the ouster of prior CEO Pat Gelsinger.
DATA
CHINA DATA (MNI): China Consumer Satisfaction Up
MNI (Beijing) China’s Consumer Satisfaction Evaluation Report reached 80.36 points in 2024, up 0.44 points from the previous year, according to the China Consumers' Association on Thursday. Eastern, central and western regions reached 83.70, 78.02 and 76.78, rising 0.29%, 1.26% and 0.67% y/y. Looking ahead, the association said authorities should increase the intensity and scope of consumer subsidies and encourage green and innovative consumption.
FOREX: EUR Hampered by Lack of Deal Progress
- JPY trades firmer against all others early Thursday, the inverse of the price action seen at this point yesterday - however USD/JPY has bounced well off the pullback lows at Y147.58. The EUR trades under moderate pressure on the back of further concerns over the passage of the debt brake proposals in Germany. The leader of the Greens Party confirmed this morning that no progress has been made in the talks with the CDU and SPD, meaning no concessions have been agreed, and we're no nearer the passage of the legislation. The old Bundestag convenes today at 1200CET (0700ET, 1100GMT) to begin debate on the package.
- Antipodean currencies are underperforming as this week's bounce in risk faded off highs. Core European indices have consolidated a recent bounce, with yesterday's soft Wall Street close filtering into European trade this morning.
- AUD/USD has faltered on the approach to tried-and-tested resistance at 0.6352, the 100-dma. Meanwhile,
AUD/JPY is showing through Y93.00, as risk off grips equity markets again. Recent lows in the pair, around 91.80/85 were seen in the first part of March. AUD/USD is back under 0.6300 as well, the weakest performed in the G10 space. - Following yesterday's CPI print, near-term focus shifts to the PPI numbers due later today, alongside the weekly jobless claims numbers. Russian President Putin has cryptically confirmed he may hold an international phone call later today - for which speculation runs high that it may be with President Trump, concerning an imminent ceasefire in Ukraine.
EGBS: Equity Recovery and Italian/Greek Supply Weighs
A move away from session lows for European equity futures helps this morning’s pullback in Bunds extend, while heavy impending supply from Italy and a dual-tranche syndication from Greece continues to weigh.
- Bund futures have now retraced all of yesterday’s post-settlement rally, now -6 ticks at 127.02. A bearish theme remains intact, with support seen around 126.53 (March 11 low) and 126.49 (2.95% level in the 10-year Bund yield).
- The German curve has lightly bear steepened, with 30-year yields up 3.5bps and 2-year yields little changed.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are off early highs alongside the equity recovery. GGBs underperform in light of the syndication.
- Bundesbank President Nagel appears to have pushed back his timeline for achieving price stability (now the end of this year vs the middle previously), though a hawkish tone is not surprising from him.
- Eurozone January industrial production is due at 1000GMT. Our tracking points to 0.1-0.2pp upside risks to the 0.6% M/M consensus.
GILTS: Under Light Pressure as Cross-Market Cues Dominate
Cross-market cues continue to dominate given the lack of meaningful local developments.
- Core global FI edges lower again in recent trade as equities move away from session lows.
- UK fiscal stories continue to focus on the need for rebuilding fiscal headroom, although there isn’t much new within the FT’s latest piece, as their sources point to the need for welfare and departmental spending cuts.
- Futures as low as 91.27.
- Bearish technical trend in the contract remains intact.
- Initial support at yesterday’s low (91.27) is being tested, protecting more meaningful support at the March 6 low (90.73).
- Yields 0.5-1.5bp higher.
- 2s10s and 5s30s continue to hover around cycle closing highs. Those with steepener positions will want to force the first close above 50bp in 2s10s since May ‘22 and the first close above 100bp in 5s30x since May ’21.
- Modest outperformance (~1.5bp) noted for 10s vs. Bunds. Spread last 183.5bp after yesterday’s failure to break through the key support cluster (175/174.5bp).
- BoE-dated OIS little changed, showing ~52bp of cuts through year-end vs. 53.5bp late yesterday, long end weakness dominates.
- Little of note on the UK calendar until tomorrow’s monthly GDP data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-25 | 4.462 | +0.7 |
May-25 | 4.271 | -18.4 |
Jun-25 | 4.216 | -23.9 |
Aug-25 | 4.078 | -37.6 |
Sep-25 | 4.042 | -41.3 |
Nov-25 | 3.953 | -50.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.936 | -51.8 |
EQUITIES: Medium-Term Trend Direction in Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remains Up
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.01, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 5600.00 handle. A bear threat in S&P E-Minis remains present and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment. Sights are set on the next important support at 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5949.30, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 29.06 pts or -0.08% at 36790.03 and the TOPIX ended 3.45 pts higher or +0.13% at 2698.36.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 13.195 pts or -0.39% at 3358.729 and the HANG SENG ended 137.66 pts lower or -0.58% at 23462.65.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 144.84 pts or -0.64% at 22531.57, FTSE 100 higher by 5.86 pts or +0.07% at 8546.97, CAC 40 down 26.32 pts or -0.33% at 7962.15 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 20.34 pts or -0.38% at 5339.08.
- Dow Jones mini down 178 pts or -0.43% at 41218, S&P 500 mini down 35.25 pts or -0.63% at 5569.5, NASDAQ mini down 170.25 pts or -0.87% at 19447.75.
Time: 08:50 GMT
COMMODITIES: Bearish WTI Conditions Intact Despite Moderate Recovery This Week
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off has resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $70.10, the 50-day EMA. Gold is trading higher this week. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. A stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a move lower would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2834.0. The 50-day average marks a key support.
- WTI Crude up $0.13 or +0.19% at $67.79
- Natural Gas down $0.02 or -0.54% at $4.062
- Gold spot up $8.25 or +0.28% at $2942.54
- Copper down $3.15 or -0.65% at $481.8
- Silver down $0.19 or -0.57% at $33.055
- Platinum down $12.26 or -1.24% at $975.54
Time: 08:50 GMT
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/03/2025 | 0950/1050 |  EU | de Guindos in fireside chat at EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conference | |
| 13/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production |
| 13/03/2025 | - | *** |  CN | New Loans |
| 13/03/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 13/03/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Building Permits |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Household debt-to-income |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 13/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
| 13/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 13/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 13/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 13/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** |  GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | Unemployment |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Index of Production |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  DE | HICP (f) |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 14/03/2025 | 0730/0730 | GB | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed | |
| 14/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 14/03/2025 | 0800/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 14/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 14/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | GB | BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey | |
| 14/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 14/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 14/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | EU | Cipollone in panel discussion at "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" Milan | |
| 14/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 14/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 14/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 14/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |