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MNI US Payrolls Preview: A Return To Greater Normality After January Distortions

Executive Summary

  • Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 200k in February but two-month revisions will likely be watched particularly closely.
  • Typical January seasonality biases seasonally adjusted jobs growth higher in times of a tight labor market, but this effect will drop out in February.
  • Hours worked and by association hourly wage growth also watched to see how much of last month’s sharp surprises were down to bad weather.
  • There is an usually wide range of analyst estimates for average hourly earnings.
  • The round of strong January reports and Fedspeak preaching patience on rate cuts has seen markets not quite fully price a first cut in June (kicked to July) before a total 90bp of cuts for the year.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USNFPMar2024Preview.pdf


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