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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Consensus looks for a slight moderation in payrolls growth in December after last month’s release moved clearly in the wrong direction for Powell and the FOMC.
- However, it’s expected to show another month well above a more sustainable 100k with the u/e rate holding at 3.7% (slight survey skew lower) and AHE growth of 0.4% M/M (slight skew softer).
- Revisions to last month’s payrolls and new seasonal factors for household survey figures are also in focus along with the usual combination of unemployment and participation rates plus AHE growth to judge slack.
- The market is torn between a 25bp and 50bp hike for the Feb 1 FOMC. Market sensitivity can see large reaction to surprises in either direction but is perhaps skewed more to a relief rally if a downside surprise after the latest rise in Fed terminal pricing and string of strong labor indicators. CPI follows Jan 12.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE ATTACHED HERE:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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