MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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MNI US Payrolls Preview: Risks Of Upside Unemployment Surprise

The US unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.2% again in September, but there are upside risks.
AnalysisAnalysisHomepageCreditCommoditiesEmployment InsightMarketsStory

Executive Summary

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to have firmed marginally to 150k in September although some analysts also look for upward revisions to August.
  • There is a strong cluster of estimates around 150k but with a wider than recent range of views beyond that.
  • The unemployment rate can again have a major role in the market reaction. Consensus sees 4.2% for a second month and whilst claims have proved resilient, we see a real risk that it tilts the other side of 4.25%.
  • Powell has looked to temper expectations of a second 50bp cut but the market still prices 35bp of cuts for the Nov 6-7 FOMC with core PCE inflation recently tracking a little below 2% annualized.
  • A scenario with the u/e rate firmly rounding to 4.3% and payrolls growth of circa 100k could be sufficient for a material step towards pricing in 50bp but the elections on Nov 5 remain a key unknown.
  • Note that there is no expected strike impact with this month’s data but there could be significant disruption for the October report on Nov 1, just a few days ahead of the Nov FOMC. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

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Executive Summary

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to have firmed marginally to 150k in September although some analysts also look for upward revisions to August.
  • There is a strong cluster of estimates around 150k but with a wider than recent range of views beyond that.
  • The unemployment rate can again have a major role in the market reaction. Consensus sees 4.2% for a second month and whilst claims have proved resilient, we see a real risk that it tilts the other side of 4.25%.
  • Powell has looked to temper expectations of a second 50bp cut but the market still prices 35bp of cuts for the Nov 6-7 FOMC with core PCE inflation recently tracking a little below 2% annualized.
  • A scenario with the u/e rate firmly rounding to 4.3% and payrolls growth of circa 100k could be sufficient for a material step towards pricing in 50bp but the elections on Nov 5 remain a key unknown.
  • Note that there is no expected strike impact with this month’s data but there could be significant disruption for the October report on Nov 1, just a few days ahead of the Nov FOMC. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less