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US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Jan 2025

US TSYS/SUPPLY
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • MNI's latest Deep Dive of US Treasury issuance has been published and emailed to subscribers. PDF HERE
  • MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.
  • Expectations remain firmly that there will be no upsizings to Treasury coupon auctions until later in 2025 at the earliest, and perhaps not until 2026 (sizes were increased between Aug 2023 and May 2024, and held steady since).
  • The Fed’s expected conclusion to balance sheet runoff in Q1 or Q2 could help by moderating net financing requirements. But when the upsizings are announced, potentially beginning as soon as the August 2025 refunding, they are expected to go on for multiple quarters.
  • Auction Results: December’s nominal coupon auctions were mixed, with three out of seven auctions trading-through, all of which saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The 2Y Note auction was on-the-screws, and the remaining 3 auctions (3, 20, and 30-year auctions) tailed.
  • Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen).
  • January is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $20B in 10Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
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  • MNI's latest Deep Dive of US Treasury issuance has been published and emailed to subscribers. PDF HERE
  • MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.
  • Expectations remain firmly that there will be no upsizings to Treasury coupon auctions until later in 2025 at the earliest, and perhaps not until 2026 (sizes were increased between Aug 2023 and May 2024, and held steady since).
  • The Fed’s expected conclusion to balance sheet runoff in Q1 or Q2 could help by moderating net financing requirements. But when the upsizings are announced, potentially beginning as soon as the August 2025 refunding, they are expected to go on for multiple quarters.
  • Auction Results: December’s nominal coupon auctions were mixed, with three out of seven auctions trading-through, all of which saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The 2Y Note auction was on-the-screws, and the remaining 3 auctions (3, 20, and 30-year auctions) tailed.
  • Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen).
  • January is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $20B in 10Y TIPS and $30B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
est table