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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: May 2023 - Refunding Preview

US TSYS/SUPPLY

Our May refunding preview has just been published (PDF here):

  • The May 3 quarterly refunding announcement (0830ET/1330 UK) is overshadowed by the prospect of Treasury soon running out of cash as it continues to run up against the debt limit.
  • Analyst expectations for the “x-date” by when all available resources run out range between late July and mid-August (whereas previously several had expected September).
  • There is little to no need to change coupon auction sizes in the coming quarter, and the capacity to do so is limited given the debt limit.
  • But there is some expectation that sizes will increase beginning either in the August or November refunding windows, and some analysts see a buyback facility introduced at a future date.

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