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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: May 2024 - Refunding Preview
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: May 2024 - Refunding Preview
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
May Refunding Preview: Buybacks In Focus
- Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process for the May-Jul quarter began with borrowing estimates released on Mon Apr 29, followed by the refunding announcement itself on Wed May 1 (0830ET).
- In this round, there is relatively little intrigue surrounding coupon auction sizes: Treasury has provided clear guidance that there will be no changes to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes “for at least the next several quarters”, and analysts are unanimously agreed (outside of a potential tweak to TIPS).
- That leaves the focus squarely on the long-anticipated buyback program that is set to be announced Wednesday.
- In this preview, we go through the near-term financing outlook, coupon auction size projections, and possible contours of the buyback program.
- Recapping April’s coupon auctions: they were relatively weak. 4 (of 7) coupon sales tailed, each of which saw a negative reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator.
Please see PDF for full analysis:
MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_05-Refunding.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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