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​MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: May 2024 - Refunding Preview

Our preview looks at the near-term financing outlook, coupon auction size projections, and possible contours of the Treasury's new buyback program.

Global IssuanceHomepageGlobal Issuance - USGlobal Issuance - Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

May Refunding Preview: Buybacks In Focus

  • Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process for the May-Jul quarter began with borrowing estimates released on Mon Apr 29, followed by the refunding announcement itself on Wed May 1 (0830ET).
  • In this round, there is relatively little intrigue surrounding coupon auction sizes: Treasury has provided clear guidance that there will be no changes to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes “for at least the next several quarters”, and analysts are unanimously agreed (outside of a potential tweak to TIPS).
  • That leaves the focus squarely on the long-anticipated buyback program that is set to be announced Wednesday.
  • In this preview, we go through the near-term financing outlook, coupon auction size projections, and possible contours of the buyback program.
  • Recapping April’s coupon auctions: they were relatively weak. 4 (of 7) coupon sales tailed, each of which saw a negative reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_05-Refunding.pdf



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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

May Refunding Preview: Buybacks In Focus

  • Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process for the May-Jul quarter began with borrowing estimates released on Mon Apr 29, followed by the refunding announcement itself on Wed May 1 (0830ET).
  • In this round, there is relatively little intrigue surrounding coupon auction sizes: Treasury has provided clear guidance that there will be no changes to nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes “for at least the next several quarters”, and analysts are unanimously agreed (outside of a potential tweak to TIPS).
  • That leaves the focus squarely on the long-anticipated buyback program that is set to be announced Wednesday.
  • In this preview, we go through the near-term financing outlook, coupon auction size projections, and possible contours of the buyback program.
  • Recapping April’s coupon auctions: they were relatively weak. 4 (of 7) coupon sales tailed, each of which saw a negative reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_05-Refunding.pdf