-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI WATCH:ECB Signals More Hiking, Raises Inflation Projection
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25bp to 3.5% on Thursday and signalled another quarter-point hike next month after revising higher its inflation forecasts.
President Christine Lagarde repeated last month’s assertion that the ECB has more to do to bring inflation back to target in a timely fashion, with June’s Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections adding 0.1 percentage point to headline inflation across the forecast horizon versus March, to 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
“Are we done? Have we finished the journey? No. We're not at the destination,” Lagarde said. “Do we still have ground to cover? Yes, we still have ground to cover.” (See MNI SOURCES: ECB Seen Likely Hiking Twice More).
"Barring a material change in our baseline scenario, it is very likely that we will continue to increase rates in July,” she added.
Some of the tightening effect from previous decisions has been seen already, with financing conditions reacting “forcefully” to increases in interest rates, she said.
TERMINAL EXPECTATIONS
After the decision, markets began pricing in a terminal rate of around 3.85%, though Lagarde said that where the ECB stops is “something that we will know when we get there, it is not driving our analysis.”
Discussions within the Governing Council were “harmonious,” with members reaching a “very, very broad consensus” that indicators of underlying price pressures remain strong despite “tentative” signs of softening, she said.
There is as yet no evidence of a wage-price spiral in Europe’s tight labour market, she added.
The ECB will end reinvestments from the asset purchase programme in July, she confirmed, adding that this should proceed smoothly but that the ECB has the tools it needs to deal with any potential market turbulence. (See MNI INTERVIEW: ECB Could End APP Reinvestments In Q3 - Kazaks)
Core inflation, which averaged 6.1% in May, is now seen reaching 5.1% over the year before falling to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. ECB staff revised projected GDP growth down by 0.1% in each of 2023 and 2024, to 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively, holding at 1.6% in 2025.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.