Moderate April Job Growth But Data Volatile

On Thursday April employment data is published. A moderate 23.7k rise with a tick up in the unemployment rate to 3.9% is projected by Bloomberg consensus. It has been volatile lately and April includes school holidays and so it will be important to look at recent averages. It fell 6.6k in March after jumping 117.6k in February. Given the RBA is “vigilant” to upside inflation risks and the labour market remains tight, this release will be monitored closely.

• There are a range of estimates for job growth from -10k to +45k. The consensus estimate is close to the average of the previous 5 months. ANZ is at the edge of the range forecasting a 10k drop. CBA and Westpac expect a below consensus 20k gain and NAB an above +30k.
• Unemployment rate projections are in a narrow band of 3.8-4.0% with ANZ expecting 4% but CBA, NAB and Westpac are all in line with consensus at 3.9%. The tick up is expected as employment growth is unlikely to keep up with the labour force.
• The participation rate is forecast to be steady at 66.6%.
• Other variables to watch will be underutilisation & youth unemployment rates and hours worked, which RBA Governor Bullock mentioned at her last press conference.
• The ABS will use adjusted seasonal adjustment factors in the April release.