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HUF: Moderate Fade in Euro Acting as Forint Headwind; US, Ukraine Talks Eyed

HUF
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsHungary

The Hungarian forint is giving up part of yesterday’s advance versus the euro, down 0.3% against the single currency at typing. There is no clear driver behind this morning’s move, but a continued fade in EURUSD from the week’s high is providing a headwind across CE3 FX, while a near 3% advance in European natgas futures could be accounting for the HUF’s underperformance across EMEA.

  • Despite the latest bounce, a clear bear cycle in EURHUF remains intact given the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Initial resistance is marked at 401.05, the 20-day EMA, while support is at the 395.00 handle. Given the sharp sell-off for USDHUF earlier this month, initial resistance remains some distance above current levels.
  • The thin local data slate both for the remainder of this week and next will mean HUF price action will predominantly remain a function of global risk sentiment. US talks with Russian officials will be eyed today after Ukraine agreed to proposals for a ceasefire. However, Bloomberg reported yesterday that while President Vladimir Putin will probably agree to eventual truce terms, he wants his own conditions met beforehand which will likely drag out negotiations.
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The Hungarian forint is giving up part of yesterday’s advance versus the euro, down 0.3% against the single currency at typing. There is no clear driver behind this morning’s move, but a continued fade in EURUSD from the week’s high is providing a headwind across CE3 FX, while a near 3% advance in European natgas futures could be accounting for the HUF’s underperformance across EMEA.

  • Despite the latest bounce, a clear bear cycle in EURHUF remains intact given the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Initial resistance is marked at 401.05, the 20-day EMA, while support is at the 395.00 handle. Given the sharp sell-off for USDHUF earlier this month, initial resistance remains some distance above current levels.
  • The thin local data slate both for the remainder of this week and next will mean HUF price action will predominantly remain a function of global risk sentiment. US talks with Russian officials will be eyed today after Ukraine agreed to proposals for a ceasefire. However, Bloomberg reported yesterday that while President Vladimir Putin will probably agree to eventual truce terms, he wants his own conditions met beforehand which will likely drag out negotiations.