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Modest Dovish Moves In Fed Pricing As Labour Market Data Loosens Further

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Modest dovish moves seen in the wake of the labour market report, with the uptick in the unemployment rate, negative revisions to the headline NFP print & “low” unrounded AHE figures outweighing the firmer-than-expected NFP number.

  • FOMC-dated OIS shows ~18.5bp of cuts through the Sep meeting and ~45.5bp of easing through year end vs. ~18.0bp and ~44.5bp pre-data.
  • A reminder that there has been a growing focus on Fed suggestions that a softer-than-expected labour market could provide a trigger for rate cuts.
  • While the labour market is by no means weak in headline figure terms, a loosening trend is becoming more apparent.
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Modest dovish moves seen in the wake of the labour market report, with the uptick in the unemployment rate, negative revisions to the headline NFP print & “low” unrounded AHE figures outweighing the firmer-than-expected NFP number.

  • FOMC-dated OIS shows ~18.5bp of cuts through the Sep meeting and ~45.5bp of easing through year end vs. ~18.0bp and ~44.5bp pre-data.
  • A reminder that there has been a growing focus on Fed suggestions that a softer-than-expected labour market could provide a trigger for rate cuts.
  • While the labour market is by no means weak in headline figure terms, a loosening trend is becoming more apparent.