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Modest Miss For ADP Employment, Pay Growth Slowly Moderating

US DATA
  • ADP employment growth was softer than expected in July at 122k (cons 150k) after a modestly upward revised 155k in June (initial 150k).
  • We’d be surprised if there were any meaningful changes to estimates for Friday’s private payrolls, with consensus currently at 141k.
  • ADP’s Chief Economist: “With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve's effort to slow inflation. If inflation goes back up, it won't be because of labor."
  • Arguably of more note, job stayer pay gains slowed a tenth to 4.8% Y/Y in July, “the slowest pace of growth in three years” whilst job-changers “saw a big drop” from 7.7% to 7.2% Y/Y for the slowest since May 2021.


Source: ADP


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