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Modest Twist Flattening In ECB Pricing

STIR

ECB-dated OIS twist flattens (loosely -/+1bp) on the day with little lasting impact from our latest sources piece which noted that “hawks aim for ECB hike before data ties hands.”

  • The initial headlines generated a slightly hawkish reaction in ECB-dated OIS, which firmed by roughly 1-2bp across the strip, before fading as it wasn’t a completely hawkish story.
  • The story noted that “exchanges are expected among top ECB policymakers over the weekend to fashion a winning proposal that Chief Economist Philip Lane can present to the Governing Council. In addition to the actual rate decision, securing coherence among policymakers over future policy signalling and the relationship to the current data-dependent approach is seen as crucial.”
  • One of the sources stressed that “the debate centres on the speed of slowing inflation and whether to go for a hawkish pause at 3.75% or a hike to 4.00% “with a less hawkish twist.””
  • Recent inflation data wasn’t seen as a gamechanger for policy settings, per one source.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Sep-233.753+10.1
Oct-233.815+16.3
Dec-233.839+18.7
Jan-243.825+17.3
Mar-243.771+11.9
Apr-243.691+3.9
Jun-243.585-6.7
Jul-243.477-17.5
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
HomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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