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Modest Twist Flattening With Data In Focus Ahead

US TSYS
  • After a subdued Asia session, cash Tsys have seen a modest cheapening through European hours before the pace slowed after a miss for both German and Eurozone ZEW analyst expectations in August. The front end leads the way for a small twist flattening with the pivot beyond the 10Y, pushing 2s10s back below -40bps but still above lows of just off -50bps prior to US CPI.
  • 2YY +1.9bps at 3.201%, 5YY +1.2bps at 2.912%, 10YY +0.2bps at 2.790% and 30YY -1.5bps 3.087%.
  • TYU2 sits unchanged at 119-22+, well within recent ranges on typically soft seasonal volumes. Recent moves lower are considered corrective with resistance seen at 120-22 (Aug 10 high), but having recently breached trendline support at 119-16, there could be a deeper near-term retracement with support seen at 118-30+ (Aug 12 low).
  • Data: Further declines expected for housing starts/building permits (0830ET) with perhaps particular attention on IP for July (0945ET) for realised implications from softer business activity surveys.
  • No Fedspeak or issuance scheduled today.
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