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Modest Underperformance As Begin To Near June Extension

CANADA
  • GoCs are slightly off lows but still underperform Tsys shortly after the open, most pronounced in the 10Y with yields +4.7bps vs +2.4bps for Tsys.
  • RBC on early June extension: “For this year, we estimate a combined duration extension of 0.108 on June 1/2, compared to a range of 0.121 to 0.163 over the previous four years (last year at 0.134). CA/US bond spreads typically tighten 2-5bp in the three weeks leading into the extension, with this most pronounced for 30’s. This means CA/US boxes flatten into the extension as well, though their already flat level may limit extension-related moves in the coming weeks.”
  • Ahead: Housing starts for Apr land first today at 0815ET with a small bounce forecast after March’s -11%, continuing a recent run of volatility. We also see wholesale trade and existing home sales but greater domestic focus will be on CPI tomorrow.

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