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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Little in the way of net movement in ECB-dated OIS through President Lagarde’s press conference, with the combination of the recent run of economic data, statement rhetoric, Lagarde’s post-decision musings and the Bank’s apparent continued data-dependent approach leaving a little under ~5bp of further tightening (~20% odds of a 25bp hike) priced into the strip.
- Terminal policy rate pricing lines up with the Bank’s December meeting, a little above the 4.00% seen pre-meeting, with markets heavily leaning into the idea of no further hikes.
- ~37.5bp of cuts are then showing through July ’24 vs. current terminal pricing levels vs. ~32bp pre-decision, essentially accounting for the uptick in terminal rate pricing over the decision and post-meeting press conference.
| ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | €STR ECB-Dated OIS Pre-Press Conference (%) | €STR ECB-Dated OIS Pre-ECB Decision (%) |
| Sep-23 | 3.905 | 3.906 | 3.823 |
| Oct-23 | 3.922 | 3.928 | 3.877 |
| Dec-23 | 3.949 | 3.949 | 3.909 |
| Jan-24 | 3.934 | 3.933 | 3.897 |
| Mar-24 | 3.879 | 3.878 | 3.856 |
| Apr-24 | 3.797 | 3.803 | 3.788 |
| Jun-24 | 3.686 | 3.697 | 3.689 |
| Jul-24 | 3.574 | 3.587 | 3.588 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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