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Modestly Cheaper Ahead Of GDP Revisions, 7Y Supply & Fedspeak

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see mild cheapening pressure led through 5-10Y tenors, lagging Gilts after a hawkish speech from BoE’s Mann as Tsys broadly consolidate moves after the FOMC minutes.
  • 2YY +1bp at 4.704%, 5YY +2.5bp at 4.154%, 10YY +2.7bp at 3.943% and 30YY +1.8bp at 3.932%.
  • TYH3 trades 5 ticks lower at 111-01+ and just off session lows of 111-00, close to initial support at 110-30+ (Feb 22 low) after which lies 110-13 (lower 2.0% Bollinger Band).
  • Data: 2nd estimates for Q4 GDP/PCE highlight the day’s data, landing at the same time as weekly jobless claims and the Chicago Fed national activity index (0830ET) before Kansas Fed mfg index (1100ET). Among usual GDP revisions, 1st estimates for GDI will provide a helpful alternate take on the strength of economic activity after lagging the bounce in GDP back in Q3.
  • Fedspeak: Bostic (’24 voter, 1050ET), Daly (’24 voter, 1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $35B 7Y Note auction (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy 4W, 8W bill auctions (1130ET), $15B 16 Day CMB (1300ET)

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