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Modestly Cheaper Awaiting GDP Q1 Advance, Further Earnings

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sit near the middle of the overnight range as they hold modestly cheaper levels from Wednesday’s close. Today sees particularly heavy earnings (latest Caterpillar beating adj EPS estimates with $4.91 vs $3.82) with Amazon the largest by market cap coming after the close.
  • The regular session is headlined by the GDP Q1 advance (cons 1.9%, latest GDPNow 1.1%) after recent retail sales downward revisions plus its clues for tomorrow’s March core PCE deflator, but also sees 7Y supply.
  • 2YY +1.2bp at 3.963%, 5YY +0.9bp at 3.493%, 10YY +0.9bp at 3.458% and 30YY +1.9bp at 3.722%
  • TYM3 trades 6 ticks lower at 115-11+ on average volumes. An earlier low of 115-06+ inched closer to support at the 20-day EMA of 115-00+.
  • Data: GDP/PCE Q1 advance (0830ET), weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Pending home sales Mar (1000ET), Kansas City Fed mfg index Apr (1100ET).
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $35B 7Y note auction (91282CGZ8) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $50B 4W, $45B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET

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