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Modestly Flatter Curves After Biden Withdrawal vs PBOC Rate Cut

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen two-way trade overnight following President Biden yesterday ending his re-election campaign and the PBOC cutting its seven-day reverse repo rate for the first time in almost a year.
  • The net reaction for the curve though is a modest flattening in a mild paring of “Trump trade” steepening and with yields mostly a little lower on the day. The flattening came first with the Asia open before intraday steepening after the PBOC that has since been reversed.
  • Cash yields sit between 0.5bp higher (2s) and 2bps lower (20s and 30s). 2s10s at -29.1bp is off Friday’s intraday high of -25.3bps but only back to initial post-CPI levels.
  • TYU4 trades at 110-28+ (+ 02) on middling volumes of 305k. It earlier tied with Friday’s low of 110-25 but remains above support at 110-15+ (20-day EMA).
  • The pullback therefore persists but a bullish backdrop remains with resistance seen at 111-13+ (Jul 16 high).
  • Today’s particularly thin docket should see flow and headlines in the driving seat (and with earnings still in focus), whilst some may look ahead to tomorrow’s 2Y supply. Last month’s 2Y auction came in almost in-line but with the bid-to-cover of 2.75x the highest since Aug 2023.
  • Data: Chicago Fed national activity index Jun (0830ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $70B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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