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US TSYS: Modestly Lower, Jobless Claims Headline Docket

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have pared earlier losses to leave them only modestly lower on the day, ahead of a session that’s headlined by jobless claims as a stepping stone before tomorrow’s NFP report (MNI preview here).
  • Cash yields are 0.8-2.0bp higher with 3s leading the day’s increase.
  • 2s10s at 5.5bp (-0.1bp) have pulled back off yesterday’s brief post-Bessent pick highs of 9.5bps.
  • TYH5 trades at 111-03 (-05) having kept to narrow ranges that consolidate yesterday’s rally. Volumes are very low at 230k.
  • Yesterday’s high of 111-09 stopped just short of resistance at 111-11 (Dec 3 high) and 111-12+ (50- day EMA). A more concerted push higher could open 111-26 (Oct 22 high).
  • Fed Funds futures cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 18.5bp Dec, 24bp Jan, 40bp Mar and 62bp Jun.
  • Data: Challenger jobs report Nov (0730ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Trade bal Oct (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24) speaks on economic outlook in remarks first delivered Nov 12 (1215ET, no Q&A or livestream)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 4W, $80B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have pared earlier losses to leave them only modestly lower on the day, ahead of a session that’s headlined by jobless claims as a stepping stone before tomorrow’s NFP report (MNI preview here).
  • Cash yields are 0.8-2.0bp higher with 3s leading the day’s increase.
  • 2s10s at 5.5bp (-0.1bp) have pulled back off yesterday’s brief post-Bessent pick highs of 9.5bps.
  • TYH5 trades at 111-03 (-05) having kept to narrow ranges that consolidate yesterday’s rally. Volumes are very low at 230k.
  • Yesterday’s high of 111-09 stopped just short of resistance at 111-11 (Dec 3 high) and 111-12+ (50- day EMA). A more concerted push higher could open 111-26 (Oct 22 high).
  • Fed Funds futures cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 18.5bp Dec, 24bp Jan, 40bp Mar and 62bp Jun.
  • Data: Challenger jobs report Nov (0730ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Trade bal Oct (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (’24) speaks on economic outlook in remarks first delivered Nov 12 (1215ET, no Q&A or livestream)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 4W, $80B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)