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Modestly Richer With Important Docket Before FOMC Decision

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries trade 2-3bp richer with 2s10s at -16bps mostly holding yesterday’s late steepening.
  • It’s ahead of an important docket even before the FOMC decision later, with data including ADP, JOLTS and ISM mfg. That’s on top of the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement even if marketable borrowing estimates from earlier in the week coming broadly in line with expectations have possibly seen its market impact toned down.
  • TYZ3 at 106-02+ trades at the high end of the day’s range but well within yesterday’s range, having seen some late cheapening impetus on a huge surge in volumes (over 200k in TYZ3 between 1558-1600ET 106-02+ to 106-00). Today’s cumulative volumes of 255k meanwhile are low compared to elevated recent overnight sessions. The downtrend remains intact with support at the bear trigger of 105-10+ (Oct 19 low).
  • Fed: FOMC announcement (1400ET) and presser (1430ET)
  • Data: MBA mortgage data Oct 27 (0700ET), ADP Oct (0815ET), S&P Global US mfg PMI Oct final (0945ET), JOLTS Sep (1000ET), ISM mfg Oct (1000ET), Construction spending Sep (1000ET)
  • Issuance: US Tsy Quarterly Refunding Announcement (0830ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $56B 17W bill auction
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