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Modestly Richer With Lighter Docket Before Tuesday's CPI

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries are holding a modest rally with benchmark tenors 1-2bp richer, broadly consolidating Friday’s bear flattening with 2s10s at -42bps.
  • Participants continue to attempt to assess the market impact of Moody's late Friday move to revise the U.S. sovereign rating outlook to negative (Moody's are the only 1 of the 3 major rating agencies that still give the U.S. a AAA rating), although impact appears limited for now.
  • TYZ3 at 107-13+ trades at the high end of the overnight session’s narrow range on subdued volumes of 250k compared to regular heavy overnight sessions of recent weeks.
  • Data: NY Fed Inflation Expectations (1100ET) for October are of interest after the recent ramping up in the U.Mich equivalent. It’s followed by the monthly budget statement for Oct (1400ET).
  • Fedspeak: Gov Cook (0850ET) - we don’t expect anything monetary policy related -see STIR bullet- but it’s worth watching in an otherwise light docket.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B, 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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