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Momentum in Risky Assets May Ease Amid World Trade Slowdown

US
  • In the past few months, the annual change in South Korean exports, which some analysts use as one of the key inputs (among other macroeconomic and financial variables) when computing an aggregate leading indicator, have been decelerating sharply.
  • The year-on-year change in SK exports fell from a high of 45.6% in May to 16.7% in September, partly driven by the significant deceleration in the Chinese economic activity since February.
  • The chart below shows how strongly the annual growth of SK exports have led SP500 earnings (by 3M) in the past two decades (by 3 months).
  • Hence, with the slowdown in global liquidity amid Fed preparing for tapering, momentum on US risky assets (especially equities) may ease in the medium term.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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