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Mondi (Baa1/A-) In-Principle Merger Agreement With DS Smith (BBB-)

BASIC INDUSTRIES
  • EVs aren’t far apart: £8bn and £6.5bn.
  • Despite MNDILN having the stronger credit profile, SMINLN trades tighter. As a single line €650mn issue from 2017, we assume pricing reflects liquidity and scarcity rather than fundamentals.
  • Theoretically we should see these names converge.
  • MNDILN spreads have widened ~25bp since the initial offer. We may now see partial retracement with the agreement remaining all share. Pro forma leverage will increase so we do not expect a full recovery.
  • No view on rating actions for now. Current spreads appear to cushion a one notch downgrade.

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