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MONTH END

CROSS ASSET

BONDS: MS

  • EU Govies: +0.17yr (LARGE), they expect largest extension in 1-5y sector due to bonds falling out)
  • US TSYS: +0.06yr (Small)
  • UK Govies: +0.03yr (Tiny)

BONDS: Barcap

  • EU Govies: +0.12yr (Decent, large)
  • US Tsys: +0.09yr (Average)
  • UK Govies: +0.00yr (Non event)

FX Citi:

  • FX hedging model points to a greater-than-average need to sell USD in April.- Citi write that US equities and bonds have out-performed this month, meaning foreigners' needs to hedge gains in US assets will likely dominate this month-end's rebalancing.-
  • Both bond and equity investors are likely to be USD sellers, although equities hedge rebalancing contributes 86% to the signal
  • They conclude that the average signal strength across all USD crosses measures 1.7 standard deviations. Signals of this magnitude have occurred only 5% of the time since 2004
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