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Month-End Flow Could be Patchy, Value Date Tuesday

FOREX

As we wrote yesterday, month-end FX flows could be inconsistent and patchy due to month-end value date today, and the limited market openings on Friday due to easter. Ahead of month-end, most sell-side eye moderate USD sales into the end of March:

  • Barclays write that their model indicates moderate USD selling signal against most majors. They also note that all signals except for USDJPY are borderline between moderate and weak.
  • Citi also see moderate USD selling, and the instance of month-end value date Tuesday could mean markets see corporate USD demand in early NY hours.
  • Credit Agricole write that equity market performance this month suggests month-end portfolio rebalancing flows in favour of mild USD sales, with the strongest sell-signal USD vs. SEK. Separately, their corporate flow model points to EUR sales. These two models combined therefore favour selling the USD vs. an equally-weighted basket of G10.
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