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Month-End Rebalancing Roils Mky Ahead March NFP

US TSYS
Rates see-sawed higher Thursday, near middle of the session range following late month-end rebalancing trade, volumes spiked on late buying in SPX eminis, ESM2 climbing off lows to 4582.5, before scaling back to 4557.0, while TYM2 trades from 123-00.5 to 122-27 into the FI close, 122-27 (+7) last.
  • Little react to earlier data, PCE in-line +0.6%; +6.4% Y/Y; MNI PMI recovered to 62.9 in March, after last month's dip to 56.3. Focus on Fri's March employment data.
  • March nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 490k (Bbg primary dealer median sits at 520k). We see two-sided risks to May pricing for Fed hikes and somewhat asymmetric risk to the downside for the broader rate path, but acknowledge that there's a long way to go between this report and the next FOMC decision on May 4, especially in the current geopolitical climate.
  • FI rallied briefly after headlines aired Russia's Putin expects gas delivery contracts to be paid in Roubles, buyers must have Rouble funds deposited in Russian banks or risk being shut off. Timing over payments in question: initial report was by today; more recent reporting suggests second half of April to early May.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 1.8bps at 2.2882%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.4249%, 10-Yr is down 2.2bps at 2.327%, and 30-Yr is down 2.9bps at 2.4453%.
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